10/13/2012 Weekend Update

[Al_Dente]

These are the stockcharts.com trend-finder tools: Aroon, Vortex and ADX.
Yesterday gave us a big red bear spike on the Aroon (21) daily, top panel.
Sometimes this is good for a bear trend; sometimes it fades quickly.

“We are all born mad. Some remain so.” [Samuel Beckett, “Waiting for Godot”]

Trane: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xbYKYyRI ... re=related

PAGING daytradingES: THANKS v much ps what does NTA mean?

[kongen]

Al, thank you for the Appel Trend material. Looks like Compx and IWM are confirmed by TRAN. Interesting that confirmation of bear movement in SP500 AND DJ30 by Tran will require Tran to go down from here. But TRAN actually looks somewhat bullish.

[KeiZai]

Here is my UUP, Sell first ask question later type of deal for me.

It would be sweet to get one more leg up in euro (short-term) I hope u are right (I am short from 1.2982 but 1.302 would be even better entry point )

The attachment EX.png is no longer available

But this is more likely outcome (and main reason why I am already short )

u r welcome daytradingES

[Al_Dente]

PAGING GOLD
View on gold v long bonds, but CAUTION: it’s zerohedge… grain of salt
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-1 ... ld-selling

[KeiZai]

Iron ore and etc traders my short-term take on Rio Tinto (price in pound sterling)

[Al_Dente]

Al, thank you for the Appel Trend material. Looks like Compx and IWM are confirmed by TRAN. Interesting that confirmation of bear movement in SP500 AND DJ30 by Tran will require Tran to go down from here. But TRAN actually looks somewhat bullish.

yes tran HAS NOT yet confirmed a bear
also if u zoom in u can see that SPX just BARELY crossed; LTs may see that as a “wait” signal
that’s why I called it premature.
Tran needs to make up her mind and SPX needs to be more convincing.
U inspired me to add RUT (bottom panel), but RUT/IWM is not part of the original Appel strategy. FWIW

Appel’s is just one LT strategy. Here’s another: the standard “Stock to Bond Ratio” which also just BARELY crossed to bear-spy (but she’s a bouncer).
Critics think Ben’s antics have broken this ratio, but it still looks ok 2 me.

“Will night never come?” [Samuel Beckett, “Waiting for Godot”]

Miles: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDS_nqHa ... re=related

[KeiZai]

TRAN is either done (more likely IMO) or is going to 61.8 before lower

(just under strong res and possible double top)

We can probably take it also as a triangle (with one trap) and now backtesting with the same target...time will tell. It always does

[KeiZai]

I don´t know but I see very corrective decline in apple should stop no too far from here

[KeiZai]

S&P500

[ClarkW]

Paging AL,
As requested!

Update on last weekend's gold post

Last weekend I highlighted a possible topping formation in Gold.
Here is a review of that:
Review
http://screencast.com/t/8LiQf7SR

We have closed below the sell trigger level on a Friday close. Here is this weeks update!
update for Saturday 13 Oct 2012
http://screencast.com/t/ytLLifIa

NTA
GLTA

Great stuff, daytradingES!

[Cobra]

weekly stock picks.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=703&p=99991#p99991

[xfradnex]

I’m posting this update prematurely. It’s for intermediate-term “Trend Follower”portfolios.
Based on the old Gerald Appel strategy: Exit when both the 5 and 10ema cross below the 20ema, BUT THE TRANS MUST CONFIRM,
and they are not confirming yet.
Last time I posted this was in June when it confirmed a buy (green boxes).
So who cares about longer-term trend followers? We all do, because if/when this confirms a sell signal, the LTs may start crowding the exits…

The attachment 1013wkndgeraldaapl.png is no longer available

Dr Al. Good charts. Agree on everything but Trans because Transports have been beaten like a dog for too long and have leveled off (not like the other animals); esp no confirm.

[KeiZai]

I made a chart for those of you who are not familiar with EW stuff, this is textbook flat - it could morph into something bigger (as shown below) but IMO it´s safe to buy the dip (u can eventually exit at BE later)

russell chart

[daytradingES]

PAGING daytradingES: THANKS v much ps what does NTA mean?

NTA - not trading advice
(my disclaimer LOL)

[daytradingES]

Iron ore and etc traders my short-term take on Rio Tinto (price in pound sterling)

RT13.png

Thanks for the Rio chart Keizai!
Sorry to be a dim bulb but do you read your chart that it will go down?

I read an article - perhaps at zero hedge? - that the only thing you needed to track the health of the economy of China (and since the world seems to be banking on then correspondingly the health of the world recovery) was the demand for iron and so a chart of the price of iron was all you need!

[daytradingES]

Iron ore

Iron ore price chart
http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/? ... y=iron-ore

http://ycharts.com/indicators/iron_ore_ ... any_origin

Fortesque tested below $95
http://blogs.wsj.com/dealjournalaustral ... ys-moodys/

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of ... yed-2012-8

[daytradingES]

6 cent iron ore company -going, going, gone!

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CIO. ... z=l&q=b&c=
NTA

[daytradingES]

Here one with good trading potential - flat and wide fluctaions
NTA

[ClarkW]

I know most here do plenty of homework but just a reminder when entering new positions, KNOW when the company announces earnings (also major competitors and/or clients)

[Seawaves]

David Halsey posted a scary chart, but it's hard to believe
http://eminiaddict.com/wp-content/uploa ... sh_001.png