Cobra's Market View

/CL as per the last couple days.. 50w SMA 47.86 target comes into range.. yellow First chart…. W/D/60 USOIL = /CL

target met. will need see more bars.

might be a rebound here first after hitting 100% mm, then another leg down I guess.

Trades with cats wrote:Well that took an hour and 45 minutes to round trip for the second drop down to yesterday's close and the ADR low. In theory this should be close to the low for today but hey you know what that old baseball player said.

Conflating theory and thesis

Disproved theory is not a theory afterwards

Observing is half of seeing, or something ...

Even though ES is 3 deviations below VWAP it is just getting into the daily pivots because of the monster overnight run up in price. So I would think the lower ADR band would be less significant today.

I switched this chart from floor pivots to Jackson zones as written up by Mark Fisher in "The Logical Trader". Fat Tails has several options for calculating pivots in this indicator,

K447 wrote:

Trades with cats wrote:Well that took an hour and 45 minutes to round trip for the second drop down to yesterday's close and the ADR low. In theory this should be close to the low for today but hey you know what that old baseball player said.

Conflating theory and thesis

Disproved theory is not a theory afterwards

Observing is half of seeing, or something ...

I have one that I love too :
"I wish I could live in theory, because in theory everything is fine "

I like that Yogism because as traders we live in a statistical cloud where we are following probabilities. The average range for the last 20 days has pretty good probabilities of being a limit but today is not a normal day.

But it is a Friday and I think "they" like a green close on Friday to tee up the Asian open on Sunday night.

no hit 100% mm target, so not sure there's another leg down or not anymore, need see more bars.

Playing the bounce in LABU.....

Mr. BachNut wrote: If I can get a good price, I may close more short today to get net long.

Done. No clue what happens now.
Low may get a retest.
Will try to do nothing for the rest of day unless things really crumple into the close.

Fehro I see the cliff in TLT but I also see a potential double massive bottom w monthly chart. Waiting to reload all in long position; tried looking at entry in russel but do not think its there yet. Fwiw, the industry (which I have posted previously) I work in normally front leads ALL of the economy. Our last quarter was dismal and 50 percent below what was expected. If this economy follows suit, just like every past one has....the rate hikes WILL NOT last! Again, fwiw and good luck to all...

hunterman wrote:... the industry (which I have posted previously) I work in normally front leads ALL of the economy. ...

Would you be willing to retell what industry this is?

hunterman,

Thanks for the insite on your leading industry but I politely disagree with your thought on FOMC. They have absolutely no data to support the rate hikes. They know they should have started about 2 years ago and are behind the curve. They are trying to get ready to fight the next slow down as well as stop the bubble in the stock market. Research from Deutsche Bank this week using the Fed's own models showed that the higher they can get rates before the economy tanks the less QE they will have to do. The election is over so they are free to act. I think it is that simple.

Whatever they do doesn't matter as the 200 billion in new credit is mostly coming from the EU and Bank of Japan.

HAPPY HOUR

For about 40 minutes we have been stopped at VWAP/R1 at 2370 ES March expiry contract.

Pasta Boss That has to be my wife's man-cat Fumar in his younger days!

Trades with cats wrote:For about 40 minutes we have been stopped at VWAP/R1 at 2370 ES March expiry contract.

Yep. Bulls are not out of the woods yet.
A close above yesterday's high would be constructive.
Trade above Wednesday's high would be very helpful.
Trade above this morning's high would be out of the woods with an eye to retest high.

Trade below today's low... es muy malo...
Trade below Tuesday's low, bears in control for lower lows.

Crude oil price seems to matter.

Guessing no decision until next week.

Chart is June contract.

well, guess that's it for today. Monday has been a little bit bear friendly recently. thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

please don't forget our weekly sentiment poll which will be posted right after the close.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp