03/10/2017 Live Update

[Cobra]

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the rebound may have small legs at least.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2017/03 ... ay-update/

[ccash04]

I think today goes like the payroll days of old, where initial move up or down reverses by EOD.

[Trades with cats]

Just as good as in the Wall Street Journal, that is to say this is now the 'common knowledge' on wall street, full text available at Zerohedge.
Goldman's take on jobs Bolding by me.
"While we suggested that the lack of a solid rebound in average hourly wages clouded the Fed's intentions on future rate hikes after March, Goldman had no such doubts and in a report issued moments after the "solid jobs report", Goldman's chief economist Jan Hatzius revised his forecast for upcoming FOMC moves, pulling forward the next two rate hikes, expecting interest rate increases in March, June and September, up from the previous March, September and December. More importantly, Goldman now also expects the Fed to start its "balance sheet normalization to Q4 2017 from mid-2018 previously."

So in my opinion formed by reading trashy posts on the internet the run off in the Fed's balance sheet adds to the sound of liquidity going down the drain. Why oh why are they actively popping the equity bubble? The common knowledge seems to be because they are out of bullets and they need to reload (higher rates and the ability to add to their balance sheet). Clearly they feel balance sheet constrained by the politicians or Tim Geithner would not have written that article arguing for unlimited balance sheets. They have argued for removal of the zero bound on a retail level (Harvard Prof Ken Rogoff and others) as on a commercial level it has not had the effect they wanted in Europe. Well the Indian attempt has been a disaster so it appears the ability for more QE is what they want.

[Trades with cats]

Machine calculated ADR high and low for today. I have added the same calculation using Globex (extended electronic) trading. That high is a bit lower. I noticed last night that yesterdays ADR high was hit once the Asian session had opened, sort of a phreatic victory as I do not trade overnight, preferring to sleep.

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:05 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2017/03 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

too many bears yesterday *today too many bulls today.. Put/Call

[Cobra]

morning hourly filled black bar.

[fehro]

too many bears yesterday to too many bulls today.. Put/Call

http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results

[Trades with cats]

Fat Tails indicators showed ADR low at about yesterday's low (sorry, should be CLOSE). Since today has been all about buy the overnight rumor and sell the New York trading hours news that looks like a pretty good target to me. We did flatline at that range for most of the power hour yesterday.

I am aware that yesterday and today are index option roll days so a reminder join me in updating your charts this weekend.

[Trades with cats]

Oh NO Nixon's daylight savings curse on North America starts Sunday.

[Mr. BachNut]

A BachNut greeting to all on this NFP Friday.
Long post today... sorry.

The NYMO cycle is down but turning up from deep in the turn zone.
It remains possible but unlikely that NYMO falls back to make lower lows in the days ahead.
So, the view is (unless something remarkable happens by the close) that we have started an up cycle, and the chart will catch up and confirm in the days ahead.

Price finally and begrudgingly hit a down target yesterday. A tag of the upper Keltner was expected and some support here not a surprise.
The bull took a full five days to close Trump's congressional speech gap. Still strong but if those buyers were to get flushed, could get a whoosh.
We now have fresh gap targets above as well as a plethora of possible targets below.
A NYMO up cycle ought to hit those upper price targets and perhaps new ATHs.
On the other hand, a fresh price low at some point with a positive NYMO divergence is also in the range of potential outcomes.

A couple of issues:

Prior instances of price putting a bunch of white space above the upper keltner seem to have a couple of common paths.
Once we get a close below the upper Keltner look for one of the following:
1) A quick trip to the middle keltner (perhaps with a retest of the underside of the upper keltner along the way);
2) Oscillations around the upper keltner to put in another token high or two before a trip to the middle keltner; or
3) hugging the underside of the upper keltner in a gentle rise before breaking down to the middle keltner.
We'll see what happens this time, but a trip to the middle keltner may setup soon.

It is important to recognize that NYMO has been neutral to weak for sometime while price has been strong.
Generally, this means that the big cap companies that drive the indexes due to their market weights have been divergent and dominating the show.
So, while the NYMO has use, watching the generals and price driven tools may be more salient to trade than this model. (*frowns*)

Lastly, one cannot deny that the market has gotten more gappy.
Whereas in history price gaps have marked events or technical moments of some significance, they now appear to reflect some kind of dynamic between the overnight market and the cash market.
Thus, they have technical significance is so far as gaps trap cash market traders and force squeezes and chases, but perhaps their salience as a swing target is diluted compared to the past.
This is something that requires study and mulling over.

I am long and short. Net short. Working ES and TF.
I got an overbought signal after the Trump speech high in the context of a NYMO down cycle, which got me short.
I have taken scales but have runners on.
Longs were put on yesterday as we were deep in the turn zone and price turned.
If I can get a good price, I may close more short today to get net long.
Trade above today's high next week (whatever it turns out to be) would probably have me long, at least in ES.
Per the above comments though, I am thinking the next rallies and dips will be setting the stage for a trip to the middle keltner.
So, I am orienting to a bullish bias but going to remain flexible ... though I have a trip late next week that could have me problematically away from my keyboard.

[Cobra]

maybe pullback has legs.

[fehro]

TLT weekly .. cliff hanging $115 goes.. look out below!!

[Cobra]

fib 61.8% mm might be possible.

[Cobra]

members only update at 12:00 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2017/03 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

TLT weekly .. cliff hanging $115 goes.. look out below!!

TLT "could" see some serious gap potential.. of - $3-5 dollar gap down.. if we loose it here… looks dangerous… see previous TLT chart above. That weekly TLT candle is ugly.

[Al_Dente]

NY advancing stocks = 1.3 x declining stocks
NY advancing volume = 1.3 x declining volume

NY declining stocks = 0.7 x advancing stocks
NY declining volume = 0.7 x advancing volume

Bulls had about a 5x advantage at the open, and gave it all away to a chop/range day (1-to-1 ish)

[Al_Dente]

Index performance, the last 5 days (the week, so far)
I’m concerned that banks (red) are breaking down, after the NFP data cleared the path for a rate hike

[Trades with cats]

Well that took an hour and 45 minutes to round trip for the second drop down to yesterday's close and the ADR low. In theory this should be close to the low for today but hey you know what that old baseball player said.