01/25/2012 Intraday Watering

[SWalsh]

On ES TL (slightly through as I type this) ....at 10 AM the hourly 13/34 crosses. Algos "might" be buyers here with some light HFT quote stuffing. Not real big, but apparently sniffing.

[soku]

if bulls cannot defend 1300-1305, it will be party time for bears.
have been bulled for too long.

[CMT]

Stolen from Springheel_Jack http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/. Thought it was worth sharing. 3 year daily chart of $GOLD shows how important the 150 DMA has been. It showed as support 8 times. And now is overhead resistence.

great chart and an easy trade with a stop at 1700

[taggard]

quote by a decent trader-we will see. (this would fit nymo 10 ad stuff doesn't have to be 3% but most moves lately closer to 5-10% so 3% works)

This just crossed my desk- In the past 14 years, each time Apple has gapped up 5% or more on the morning after earnings to a new 52-week high- and that has happened 11 times- the NASDAQ 100 has almost always been lower one month later, by an average decline of more than 3%. The NDX is now trading at a new 10 year high, at least as implied by QQQ and NASDAQ 100 futures. I'll need it, being long QQQ puts and clearly under pressure on the position.

leaving town for a while (family stuff)--good luck to all--last thought--in the middle of all the chart work and analysis realize that it is all your perception in the end. so place less value on indicators and more value on your perception as suggested here by yet another quote--or if not that at least realize what what feels like outside information is often not.


There are a billion indicators out there. I tend to rely on relatively few. Over the years, I have found -- like with most things -- less is more. In the past 25 years, when I have tried to follow all of the arcane indicators available and all the fancy algorithms, I have found that it simply results in a lot of conflicting information that I ultimately have to filter out. So, when the dust settles, I'm back to using my old favorites, such as seasonality, sentiment indicators and overbought/ oversold readings of the simplest degree and, of course, gaps. That's what I always rely on. All the brilliant hedge fund guys with all their fancy technical indicators, generally lost money last year. So what's the big deal?

Yesterday, I heard from an astute subscribers about someone who bought a billion puts on the Market Volatility Index (VIX) as it was trading at multi-month lows. This story was getting tweeted all over the place. I asked my subscriber, "What is someone supposed to do with that information? Buy or sell?" That, after all, is the problem with so much information. What do you do with it? So someone buys puts on the VIX as it hovers near multi-month lows thinking that, because it has been dropping (as it always does when the market rallies), it will continue to drop because the market will continue to rally. Quite a call on the market after one of the sharpest advances of the past 12 months. Quite a call just hours before the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 150 points from yesterday's highs to this morning's lows. And, of course, all those VIX puts that the big, deep-pockets trader bought yesterday just got much cheaper. So what was so smart about that trade? Nothing.

The point is, when some big player makes a big directional bet on the market, he has about a 50-50 shot at being right. That's how useful the information is that some guy bought a billion puts on the VIX. It's about as useful as knowing that half the sports analysts and gamblers in the U.S. thought that the San Francisco 49ers would win Sunday's game against the New York Giants. That and about $3 will buy you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. That's all it will get you.

generally perfer peets if drinking coffee and at a chain store.

[waverider]

This is interesting, big bear trend bar on the open, also near yesterdays low, doing nothing at the moment.

[Richarab]

I don't think it's going to pierce the trendline and 150 dma on the first try. Likely to pullback. I MIGHT be in on GLD on a pullback but will have to wait and see. I'm a novice, would be interested in Cougar, 99er, Unempel or Cobra's take.

Stolen from Springheel_Jack http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/. Thought it was worth sharing. 3 year daily chart of $GOLD shows how important the 150 DMA has been. It showed as support 8 times. And now is overhead resistence.

nice chart
Took a sizable position in gold futures - i am expecting it to pierce that line and start sailing north
Your thoughts?

Indeed
Men - share your insights
Looks like I may be in too early
More pullback for gold before the rise to the moon?


---
I am here: http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=18.001513,-92.956746

[cougar]

SPY is not bullish:

[KENA]

We are brakeing the 1308 area and if we brake the 1306 we may see the 1295 area today..Lets see.

[Richarab]

SPY is not bullish:

not bearish either - feels like a lost lamb all week


---
I am here: http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=18.001310,-92.956444

[soku]

Good morning, interestingly GS and MS were downgraded by...competitor JPM.

Apples sales continue to confuse me, I still don't get the attraction. For example:

consumer choices:

$500 iPad < $500 PC Laptop

(iPad's don't come with an external keyboard, the processing power is terrible and the screen is too small)

The list goes on

I admit I was impressesed by the 3g iPhone, because it could be hacked and used with any service provider. Ultimately it's the obsession with the brands image that sells the product, IMO.

it is a good lesson for me. other than the fashion part that i never understand and will never buy, aapl is defining the portable market. i don't like ipad for all above reasons, until i attended a seminar before christmas. the hosting firm provided everybody a ipad. it is a crowded one. i don't need to stare at the front anymore. i can just look at the tiny screen on my lap which is slightly lighter than a normal laptop. it is just big enough for the slides. it is just fast enough for the synchronized demo. the convenience is incredible.
on the same seminar, people were sharing a big rumor, that aapl is going to launch i-textbook. in fact ipad is already widely used in colleges. rumor also says ipad 3 to be manufactured in may timeframe, featured quad core, 4g.

[Al_Dente]

1 min
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p= ... listNum=15
PS: check yr TRIN


Swalsh
All I kno is that VC investment used to be a decent contrary indicator, but only at extremes…..

Jarbo, thanks man

[cougar]

Whether we spell it “fracking” or “fracing”…the traders of “fracing stocks” had some intimate knowledge of the POTUS’s speech…attested by this long green bar of CRR yesterday…
But tomorrow CRR will release its ER before opening…and that will be a very different play.

[Cobra]

not sure if this is a double bottom or something else. wait.

[57chevy]

quote by a decent trader-we will see. (this would fit nymo 10 ad stuff doesn't have to be 3% but most moves lately closer to 5-10% so 3% works)

This just crossed my desk- In the past 14 years, each time Apple has gapped up 5% or more on the morning after earnings to a new 52-week high- and that has happened 11 times- the NASDAQ 100 has almost always been lower one month later, by an average decline of more than 3%. The NDX is now trading at a new 10 year high, at least as implied by QQQ and NASDAQ 100 futures. I'll need it, being long QQQ puts and clearly under pressure on the position.

leaving town for a while (family stuff)--good luck to all--last thought--in the middle of all the chart work and analysis realize that it is all your perception in the end. so place less value on indicators and more value on your perception as suggested here by yet another quote--or if not that at least realize what what feels like outside information is often not.


There are a billion indicators out there. I tend to rely on relatively few. Over the years, I have found -- like with most things -- less is more. In the past 25 years, when I have tried to follow all of the arcane indicators available and all the fancy algorithms, I have found that it simply results in a lot of conflicting information that I ultimately have to filter out. So, when the dust settles, I'm back to using my old favorites, such as seasonality, sentiment indicators and overbought/ oversold readings of the simplest degree and, of course, gaps. That's what I always rely on. All the brilliant hedge fund guys with all their fancy technical indicators, generally lost money last year. So what's the big deal?

Yesterday, I heard from an astute subscribers about someone who bought a billion puts on the Market Volatility Index (VIX) as it was trading at multi-month lows. This story was getting tweeted all over the place. I asked my subscriber, "What is someone supposed to do with that information? Buy or sell?" That, after all, is the problem with so much information. What do you do with it? So someone buys puts on the VIX as it hovers near multi-month lows thinking that, because it has been dropping (as it always does when the market rallies), it will continue to drop because the market will continue to rally. Quite a call on the market after one of the sharpest advances of the past 12 months. Quite a call just hours before the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 150 points from yesterday's highs to this morning's lows. And, of course, all those VIX puts that the big, deep-pockets trader bought yesterday just got much cheaper. So what was so smart about that trade? Nothing.

The point is, when some big player makes a big directional bet on the market, he has about a 50-50 shot at being right. That's how useful the information is that some guy bought a billion puts on the VIX. It's about as useful as knowing that half the sports analysts and gamblers in the U.S. thought that the San Francisco 49ers would win Sunday's game against the New York Giants. That and about $3 will buy you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. That's all it will get you.

generally perfer peets if drinking coffee and at a chain store.

If there were a "Like" button to push for your post, I'd push it.

[waverider]

SPY is not bullish:

Thanks Cougar, great /DX chart by the way! Do you have a sled for your huskies?

[SWalsh]

Under instructions from Turbo Tax Timmay....they are indeed playing here!

[jarbo456]

bought puts and sold calls at the open on AAPL. best trade of the day IMO.

[wayne0708]

not sure if this is a double bottom or something else. wait.

Cobra: Do you think Monday was Top, just a wishful thinking ?

[dcurban1]

Good morning, interestingly GS and MS were downgraded by...competitor JPM.

Apples sales continue to confuse me, I still don't get the attraction. For example:

consumer choices:

$500 iPad < $500 PC Laptop

(iPad's don't come with an external keyboard, the processing power is terrible and the screen is too small)

The list goes on

I admit I was impressesed by the 3g iPhone, because it could be hacked and used with any service provider. Ultimately it's the obsession with the brands image that sells the product, IMO.

it is a good lesson for me. other than the fashion part that i never understand and will never buy, aapl is defining the portable market. i don't like ipad for all above reasons, until i attended a seminar before christmas. the hosting firm provided everybody a ipad. it is a crowded one. i don't need to stare at the front anymore. i can just look at the tiny screen on my lap which is slightly lighter than a normal laptop. it is just big enough for the slides. it is just fast enough for the synchronized demo. the convenience is incredible.
on the same seminar, people were sharing a big rumor, that aapl is going to launch i-textbook. in fact ipad is already widely used in colleges. rumor also says ipad 3 to be manufactured in may timeframe, featured quad core, 4g.

Try March instead of May. Production is ramping up right now.

[cougar]

SPY is not bullish:

Thanks Cougar, great /DX chart by the way! Do you have a sled for your huskies?

Yes, I do, but I am only a dilettante musher…
But those guys on your avatar are wolves, aren’t they? They have such innocent smiles..