01/25/2012 Intraday Watering

Post by **Cobra** » Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:02 am

Flat open, so any gap will be filled.

The Global ES doesn't look very beautiful because the 2nd test of the previous high was failed in overnight session, now the key to watch is the blue line below. Must hold, otherwise it'd be Double Top.

FOMC day, so anything is possible, let's mostly watch, shall we?

cougar · Post by **cougar** » Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:06 am

Good morning, Cobra!

AAPL will open + ~$38, which is $15 above the 23$ discussed before ER.
That means, that even considering the probable collapse of intrinsic volatility, strangles will be profitable at opening.
Important for swing traders: the fan line, which was previously resistance, should become support.

====================
This is not a trading recommendation…

99er · Post by **99er** » Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:13 am

Good Morning.

It's a New Year and I have decided to limit public postings to my new site. Thank you, Cobra, for hosting this venue; there is no better place to share ideas and views on the market. And thanks to all the folks here who make Cobra's Watering Hole such a great place to visit, particularly on weekends.

Last post...a cartoon. http://www.99ercharts.com/2012/01/25/big-oil/

GLTA.

Al_Dente · Post by **Al_Dente** » Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:14 am

Good morning all

Cr Suisse upgrades their target on AAPL this morning from $500 to $550 !.
[According to “Fast Money” last night, on 1-23 (pre-eps) the average analysts target price on AAPL was $515, with 50 buy ratings, 6 holds and 1 sell]
http://screencast.com/t/6dbKjDzcl
PS: must read last night’s cobra report & aapl chart…

Screenshot of Ned Davis Research latest Economic Report, just to show u some of the oddball things he watches (truck tonnage !).
I couldn’t fit in the paragraph on “Weekly Chain-Store Sales Drop.”
http://screencast.com/t/iNqkMSMs

stucap · Post by **stucap** » Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:27 am

Cobra wrote:Flat open, so any gap will be filled.

The Global ES doesn't look very beautiful because the 2nd test of the previous high was failed in overnight session, now the key to watch is the blue line below. Must hold, otherwise it'd be Double Top.

FOMC day, so anything is possible, let's mostly watch, shall we?

I remember this was the case last week, no? retest of the high overnight? no sellers at support, to the moon by 10am. I hope sellers show up today -- at least to keep the BTFD crew honest.

waverider · Post by **waverider** » Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:29 am

Good morning, interestingly GS and MS were downgraded by...competitor JPM.

Apples sales continue to confuse me, I still don't get the attraction. For example:

consumer choices:

$500 iPad < $500 PC Laptop

(iPad's don't come with an external keyboard, the processing power is terrible and the screen is too small)

The list goes on

I admit I was impressesed by the 3g iPhone, because it could be hacked and used with any service provider. Ultimately it's the obsession with the brands image that sells the product, IMO.

stucap · Post by **stucap** » Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:31 am

cougar wrote:Good morning, Cobra!

AAPL will open + ~$38, which is $15 above the 23$ discussed before ER.
That means, that even considering the probable collapse of intrinsic volatility, strangles will be profitable at opening.
Important for swing traders: the fan line, which was previously resistance, should become support.

====================
This is not a trading recommendation…

Earnings were really solid. 25% of market cap (as of close yesterday) is CASH. Margins are insane. And P/E is very reasonable. Compared to the rest of the "tephlon 20" (i think that was a zero hedge term about a year ago), AAPL actually lives within its valuation instead of having to potentially grow into it like GMCR, LULU, AMZN, oh -- remember NFLX?

Post by **Cobra** » Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:31 am

the open.

EvilTrader · Post by **EvilTrader** » Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:34 am

My red ship left the shore yesterday.

Lets see the weather forecast to return safe soon;

ClarkW · Post by **ClarkW** » Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:35 am

Stolen from Springheel_Jack http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/. Thought it was worth sharing. 3 year daily chart of $GOLD shows how important the 150 DMA has been. It showed as support 8 times. And now is overhead resistence.

cougar · Post by **cougar** » Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:37 am

99er wrote:Good Morning.

It's a New Year and I have decided to limit public postings to my new site. Thank you, Cobra, for hosting this venue; there is no better place to share ideas and views on the market. And thanks to all the folks here who make Cobra's Watering Hole such a great place to visit, particularly on weekends.

Last post...a cartoon. http://www.99ercharts.com/2012/01/25/big-oil/

GLTA.

Does that mean that you will limit the frequency of your contributions?
Volpinacci will miss you…and sends you this long term chart of $DXY:

Post by **Cobra** » Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:37 am

again, yesterday's low is the key to watch because breakout below there would be the bear's first meaningful lower low. before that low being taken, bulls are fine.

dcurban1 · Post by **dcurban1** » Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:38 am

waverider wrote:Good morning, interestingly GS and MS were downgraded by...competitor JPM.

Apples sales continue to confuse me, I still don't get the attraction. For example:

consumer choices:

$500 iPad < $500 PC Laptop

(iPad's don't come with an external keyboard, the processing power is terrible and the screen is too small)

The list goes on

I admit I was impressesed by the 3g iPhone, because it could be hacked and used with any service provider. Ultimately it's the obsession with the brands image that sells the product, IMO.

Simple for the iPad over a Laptop or Desktop. If you only use your laptop/desktop for email and Internet with some word processing sprinkled in it makes no sense to go with the bigger and bulkier piece of equipment.

My uncle just switched to a tablet and my mother will do so in a couple of months.

Al_Dente · Post by **Al_Dente** » Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:39 am

JARBO
What say u about eur/usd?

Richarab · Post by **Richarab** » Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:39 am

ClarkW wrote:Stolen from Springheel_Jack http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/. Thought it was worth sharing. 3 year daily chart of $GOLD shows how important the 150 DMA has been. It showed as support 8 times. And now is overhead resistence.

nice chart
Took a sizable position in gold futures - i am expecting it to pierce that line and start sailing north
Your thoughts?

SWalsh · Post by **SWalsh** » Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:39 am

Al_Dente wrote:Good morning all

Cr Suisse upgrades their target on AAPL this morning from $500 to $550 !.
[According to “Fast Money” last night, on 1-23 (pre-eps) the average analysts target price on AAPL was $515, with 50 buy ratings, 6 holds and 1 sell]
http://screencast.com/t/6dbKjDzcl
PS: must read last night’s cobra report & aapl chart…

Screenshot of Ned Davis Research latest Economic Report, just to show u some of the oddball things he watches (truck tonnage !).
I couldn’t fit in the paragraph on “Weekly Chain-Store Sales Drop.”
http://screencast.com/t/iNqkMSMs

Sunday evening I heard that M&A firms are closing as investment in companies is dying, which would seem to be at odds with this. Any idea why?

Thanks

dcurban1 · Post by **dcurban1** » Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:40 am

Fourth Quarter earnings so far, Tech Good, Banks Bad

http://www.atruecontrarian.com/2012/01/ ... -tech.html

Technical Analysis, January 25, 2012 – Silver

http://www.atruecontrarian.com/2012/01/ ... -2012.html

stucap · Post by **stucap** » Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:44 am

waverider wrote:Good morning, interestingly GS and MS were downgraded by...competitor JPM.

Apples sales continue to confuse me, I still don't get the attraction. For example:

consumer choices:

$500 iPad < $500 PC Laptop

(iPad's don't come with an external keyboard, the processing power is terrible and the screen is too small)

The list goes on

I admit I was impressesed by the 3g iPhone, because it could be hacked and used with any service provider. Ultimately it's the obsession with the brands image that sells the product, IMO.

Functionality/Portability is the difference -- most people don't need a laptop as all they do is check their emails, play angry birds, and face time with their friends.....

jarbo456 · Post by **jarbo456** » Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:45 am

Al_Dente wrote:JARBO
What say u about eur/usd?

the likely-hood of a weak retest of the recent lows (1.2624'ish) is very likely IMO.

weak because bearish sentiment is still too high. however, the rebound, on a daily time frame wasn't really very powerful at all. there's a definite break of the down trend line on the daily, but if you look at the extension, a revisit of the trendline before a strong bounce higher is in fact a very high probability pattern. the retest of the trendline should be around the lows just above 1.2600.

ClarkW · Post by **ClarkW** » Wed Jan 25, 2012 10:48 am

I don't think it's going to pierce the trendline and 150 dma on the first try. Likely to pullback. I MIGHT be in on GLD on a pullback but will have to wait and see. I'm a novice, would be interested in Cougar, 99er, Unempel or Cobra's take.

Richarab wrote:
ClarkW wrote:Stolen from Springheel_Jack http://channelsandpatterns.blogspot.com/. Thought it was worth sharing. 3 year daily chart of $GOLD shows how important the 150 DMA has been. It showed as support 8 times. And now is overhead resistence.
nice chart
Took a sizable position in gold futures - i am expecting it to pierce that line and start sailing north
Your thoughts?

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