Appreciate your input. I also check SPX:VIX, but since SPX has been moving higher, should the value need to use a relative method compare to previous, instead of a fix number, I don't know whether use percentage difference is better? what do you think? thanks
RedKite wrote:
chickencoop wrote:
RedKite wrote:Thanks. My misunderstanding.
On a different subject, whether we go up or down. On Friday NYA50R had a new low in this recent distribution phase. I can't find an example where it had a new low after the final bottom. In other words it's saying the final bottom of this phase is still ahead of us, not behind us.
June 24th was a new low but it bottomed on that day?
Yes indeed. You could say last Friday was final bottom, the problem is that June 24 was a capitulation day, and last Friday wasn't. Usually the bottom is a capitulation day, though I have to say I don't have the rigorous stats for that assertion. I'm measuring capitulation using NYUD:NYUPV.
I too thought Friday was the final bottom until I saw the European volatility measures today, VDAX and VSTOXX, then I went back and looked at NYA50R on Friday, and the lack of capitulation, and now I'm very suspicious of this current recovery. I'm not saying 100% chance of a lower low around the corner, just there are too many unusual indicator values right now for Friday to look like a clean bottom. Another is SPX:VIX, which for many years has always shown a lower value at a true bottom. Last April it bottomed at 90, a record high value, and we weren't even that low on Friday. So it would be creating a new record.
SPX 5m .. highly speculative at this point.. but possible triangle, within a larger descending triangle... fwiw. It will be interesting to see which gap from today will be filled first.. the morning.. or the interday one.
rhight wrote:Uh-oh, if we fall thru the gap i'm gonna crap
if we fall through the gap and head lower.. think there will be even a sharper down move.. we've bounced weakly off this support 3 times in the last 4-5 days.. every time you jump up and down on the floor the weaker it gets.. until it falls to the next floor
Attachments
Last edited by fehro on Tue Sep 03, 2013 12:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
volume surge, biggest bar, support, so might see rebound here first. then we'll see.
Attachments
Like to read more of my commentaries? Please subscribe my Daily Market Report. Subscribers can find all the members only posts HERE. StockCharts members, please vote for me HERE, thanks.
Appreciate your input. I also check SPX:VIX, but since SPX has been moving higher, should the value need to use a relative method compare to previous, instead of a fix number, I don't know whether use percentage difference is better? what do you think? thanks
RedKite wrote:
chickencoop wrote:
RedKite wrote:
I'm not saying 100% chance of a lower low around the corner, just there are too many unusual indicator values right now for Friday to look like a clean bottom. Another is SPX:VIX, which for many years has always shown a lower value at a true bottom. Last April it bottomed at 90, a record high value, and we weren't even that low on Friday. So it would be creating a new record.
lilitulip: SPX:VIX is not one that's easy to quantify, so I don't try too hard with it. Some periods it bottoms very low, like below 50, other periods it bottoms high, most recently a bit below 80, usually. I looked at percentage difference a while ago and didn't come to a conclusion. So I use it as a secondary indicator, not primary. Another one in a similar vein is the RS of BPINDV, which should go down to at least 45 (with smoothing) for a bottom, and hasn't. Can't base trades on these, they're just supporting indicators.
Edit: that's BPINDY not BPINDV
Last edited by RedKite on Tue Sep 03, 2013 1:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Redkite: "Can't base trades on these, they're just supporting indicators."
True. Often the trend is more important than the absolute level. Also, surpassing or undercutting a prior level can also be more important than the nominal value at any given time...