03/25/2014 Live Update

[Cobra]

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I'm neutral, don't know if the rebound has more to go or is about to over.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/03 ... ay-update/

[uempel]

This is a funny indicator but it works: get out of the market if BPNDX sinks below 59. At the moment BPNDX is two points higher and is not signalling a "sell". By the way, access to BPNDX is for free at stockcharts. Go to "Free Charts" and then to "Major Bullish Percent Indexes".

[uempel]

I'm not betting on this, but if the recent game is still valid SPX should go up to 1877ish ...

[gappy]

Vote Cobra. glta

fx.PNG

[Mr. BachNut]

Net Short. Long and short. Working positions.

My summation signal is down.
My composite trend signal is up but remains unconfirmed by an important sub-indicator.

The market is not trending at present, and my signals are in conflict, which allows for future trending to emerge in either direction.
Tactically, I have taken my equity book off auto-pilot and am operating under manual control. (buying dips and selling rips)
Yesterday, I added long to a neutral stance near support. I did not go net long because my trend signal is unconfirmed and actually took some damage in yesterday's drop.
I lightened up the long this morning near an after-market P-Bar to SPY 186.34.
If the market has a good day today (or good part of the day), I may lighten the long more and weight short.
Swing trading is an un-natural act for me. Readers may want to pay attention to others on this board who know what they are doing.
Trend will assert at some point. In the mean time, I'll work to avoid getting chewed up.
I am trying to hold some position in my setups because Mr. Market probably won't send out an alert that the trending is begun.

[Cobra]

range with up bias for now.

[Nrsimha]

This is a funny indicator but it works: get out of the market if BPNDX sinks below 59. At the moment BPNDX is two points higher and is not signalling a "sell". By the way, access to BPNDX is for free at stockcharts. Go to "Free Charts" and then to "Major Bullish Percent Indexes".

BPNDX2.png

What is the buy-back signal?
If it goes below 40?

[Mr. BachNut]

I just noticed that Evil Speculator has a considerably more eloquent discussion of the current market condition and what it means for positioning than I tried to express below.

http://evilspeculator.com/?p=41032

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:08 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/03 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

failed breakout, now testing range low, so bias is down. overall, until range is taken, no clear direction.

[rhight]

If SPX doesn't make a new high in the next 2 days, and falls back below 1863 to 1867, then the intermediate down trend will follow, my spider sense is tingling

[Cobra]

target, not sure.

[rhight]

I think this may be an important 60min swing high, if SPX can't make a new high, then it may be time to fold, a map for the next two days (part of my working chart, I know it looks busy, but I'm trying to make $$ ) :

[L_T]

it may be time to fold, a map for the next two days

Off-topic humor: I'm trying to picture you folding a map for the next 2 days. Sounds frustrating.

[flumanchu]

So, where are we with the POMO Projection:

Yesterday ended at appr $SPX 1858 - Projection was 1860, which means they didn't use .2 billion. Today is projected to be -10 to 1850. With the extra .2 billion (2 points) from yesterday, that gets it to 1852. Right now, we're sitting at 1864, 12 points, or 1.2 billion more than 1.8 / day needed - or 3.0 billion total needed today. So, starting at 1852, we have .8 today + 1.2 tomorrow + another 1.0 from Thur to keep it at 1864. If so, there'll probably be a low tomorrow as they used all of it's POMO - not to say they can't still use some from Thur or Friday. But, they have to give the appearance the market goes up / down.

However, end of month should be close to 1876.

Here's projection from the weekend.
Fri, Mar 21, 2014 Mon, Mar 24, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 - 02/15/2044 $1.00 - $1.25 billion --> -6 -> 1860
Mon, Mar 24, 2014 Tue, Mar 25, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 11/15/2024 - 02/15/2031 $0.50 - $0.75 billion --> -10 -> 1850
Tue, Mar 25, 2014 Wed, Mar 26, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 - 02/15/2044 $1.00 - $1.25 billion -> -6 -> 1844
Wed, Mar 26, 2014 Thu, Mar 27, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 05/15/2021 - 02/15/2024 $2.25 - $2.75 billion -> +10 -> 1854
Thu, Mar 27, 2014 Fri, Mar 28, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 12/31/2018 - 11/30/2019 $3.75 - $4.50 billion --> +28 -> 1882
Fri, Mar 28, 2014 Mon, Mar 31, 2014 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 02/15/2036 - 02/15/2044 $1.00 - $1.25 billion -> -6 -> 1876

So, Prediction is $SPX ends at 1876 for March, and ends at 1790 for end of April.

Note: POMO may not be applied on a particular day, but instead held to be used another day, or borrowed from a future day - depending on what the Fed wants done. However, when it's all avg'd out, it ends up working out over a few days or week at a time.

[gappy]

Hourly.

Capture.PNG

[Cobra]

target met. this bear may have legs.

[DellGriffith]

This market has more up and down than a porno.

SPY BB width now down to 2.41 as a result.

[BullBear52x]

See? sell the rip, working out like a charm.