05/10/2014 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Seems bullish from the smart money chart as smart money covered huge.

The institutional buying and selling chart (courtesy of stocktiming) shows more accumulation than distribution so the current rally is healthy?

inst b sell.png (15.15 KiB) Viewed 4195 times

I see nothing on AAII and II. I'd like to see extremely extreme, for now both are far from extreme.

[Cobra]

Summary of the week's stock picks: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1290&p=162152#p162152

[DellGriffith]

IF the bbs on daily SPY tighten to extreme levels in the next week, I think the odds are that the resolution would be bearish. However, we are resting just above the 50 dma so there is room for a rally similar to september 2012. The key is to wait for the initial big break up or down and then ride it.

[Cobra]

preview of the next week's stock picks:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1298&p=162158#p162158

[Cobra]

just to lift this thread up.

[panbuk]

Full Moon on Wednesday May 14th.
Back testing shows, that before the lift up, last 3 days of new moon period can be extremely violent drawing solid leg down.
As nice example see the topping pattern of spring 2011, this year likely followed that idea so far.

Octaves, vibrations or simple sling weapon tell that you have to pull back (provide a shock) in order to gain momentum before next move.
Let's see how it works Good luck every one.

link to the full size picture: https://www.tradingview.com/x/7jcQqhUH/

[tsf]

Source: A couple of interesting charts from Slope of Hope.

http://slopeofhope.com/2014/05/cherry-p ... ratio.html

[uempel]

An interesting chart from schaeffersresearch, Todd Salmone Monday Morning Outlook

[jademann]

still kicking myself for a big loss on uvxy last week.

I don't know how I didn't see the familiar vix pattern which suggests lower vix to come next week.

I may re-enter uvxy at vix=12.5

[uempel]

This makes me angry :

A blog posts stuff which has an attractive spin to it - but it's plain baloney, simply not true. They write that RUT tanked way before NYA in 2000 and 2007 and now they forecast a similar scenario for 2014.

RUT, NYA and SPX show a similar pattern in 2000 and 2007, no strong divergence like RUT/SPX in 2014.

There are many reasons to be bearish, but to post false "research" in order to collect clicks is simply crooked.

http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com ... pWnLm.dpbs

[Out of Bounds]

This makes me angry :

A blog posts stuff which has an attractive spin to it - but it's plain baloney, simply not true. They write that RUT tanked way before NYA in 2000 and 2007 and now they forecast a similar scenario for 2014.

RUT, NYA and SPX show a similar pattern in 2000 and 2007, no strong divergence like RUT/SPX in 2014.

There are many reasons to be bearish, but to post false "research" in order to collect clicks is simply crooked.

http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com ... pWnLm.dpbs

I'm confused. Are you saying he's lying?

[uempel]

This makes me angry :

A blog posts stuff which has an attractive spin to it - but it's plain baloney, simply not true. They write that RUT tanked way before NYA in 2000 and 2007 and now they forecast a similar scenario for 2014.

RUT, NYA and SPX show a similar pattern in 2000 and 2007, no strong divergence like RUT/SPX in 2014.

There are many reasons to be bearish, but to post false "research" in order to collect clicks is simply crooked.

http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com ... pWnLm.dpbs

I'm confused. Are you saying he's lying?

Yes.

[Out of Bounds]

This makes me angry :

A blog posts stuff which has an attractive spin to it - but it's plain baloney, simply not true. They write that RUT tanked way before NYA in 2000 and 2007 and now they forecast a similar scenario for 2014.

RUT, NYA and SPX show a similar pattern in 2000 and 2007, no strong divergence like RUT/SPX in 2014.

There are many reasons to be bearish, but to post false "research" in order to collect clicks is simply crooked.

http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions.com ... pWnLm.dpbs

I'm confused. Are you saying he's lying?

Yes.

AA.png

CC.png

But what you are showing on your chart is the 200 week moving average. The 40 week moving average would equal the 200 day.

[Out of Bounds]

Here is the daily with a 200 SMA

[Out of Bounds]

Oops - this time with labels.

[DellGriffith]

From the "we don't know what's gonna happen" department:





Just have to be patient and wait for the break up or down...

Note that MFI was on an established uptrend for weeks heading into the breakout in 2012. Note that MFI was on an established downtrend for weeks heading into the breakdown in January 2014. MFI currently has etablished an uptrend (altho it may challenge / break that uptrend soon)

[daytradingES]

Sat is a sun-saturn opposition.

top?

[jademann]

my best advice to myself is if its 50/50 why bet? better to wait until the direction is obvious ie. breakout above or below..

[uempel]

Oops - this time with labels.

The attachment Capture.JPG is no longer available

Thanks OOB, you are absolutely right, I put in the weekly instead of the daily 200 MA. Did I drink too much Whisky last Tuesday

But even if we change to the daily 200 MA the statement on that website doesn't make sense and is wrong. In 2000 and 2007 RUT and SPX were aligned and moved more or less in sync, no irritating discrepancy like in April/May 2014 (discrepancy which is going on for 5 weeks now). In 2000 and 2007 RUT and SPX tanked simultaneously (more or less) down to their 200 MAs. May 9th 2014 I see RUT below its 200 MA and SPX nowhere near its 200 MA at 1781.

2000

2007

2014

[uempel]

June 1998: Looking back at RUT and SPX and their 200 MAs: the pattern of both indices looks quite similar to May 2014

1998

2014