10/09/2014 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Not sure if it's double top here. Generally this pullback should be bought. The pullback doesn't look over though, so might be 2 legged pullback then being bought? Analysis based on overnight session usually doesn't work, I found only look at regular session is more reliable though.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/10 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

SPX 15m.. top left.. as per yesterday.. possible yellow descending triangle.. should we go down and retest the lows.. or expanding triangle.. should we go up.. then back down..

[cletus]

The last time we've seen sustained bullish sentiment on ISEE put/call was the summer of 2011! Since then, people have been broodingly bearish amidst one of the strongest rallies. Readings right now are some of the lowest in history. I just don't think there will be a substantial dip until I see something like the summer of 2011. People are very stubborn. They love to hate this market.

[FlowerGirl]

T-2121 is derived from New 13 week highs and lows among Common Stocks traded at NYSE. It's rather good at spotting bottoms. A rise above 44 from below predicts a bottom with ~80% accuracy (since 1987). Using average of 4, 13, & 26 week NHLR (T-2120, T-2121, T-2122) further improves the accuracy to > 90%. Green Horizontal lines show times when T-2121 rose above 44 from below in the last ~ 2 years. I will be watching this for a clue.

Note: Above indicators are also available intraday. A hourly close of > 50 for 13 EMA of mean of three ratios appears to indicate a good reversal point. Be mindful that intraday data is available for the last 16 months only.
-----------------------------------------------------
Read this later when you have time:
SP500 since bottom in Nov 2012 has followed a channel. I expect price to remain in the channel unless proven otherwise. A departure from this type of channel has > 90% chance of coming back to the channel (Kiss back). Consider that point to take the position on the side of the breakout.
Notice purple diagonal lines. Since March 2009 all corrective phases had same slope of the correction. I expect next one to be no different.
A reading of below 50 for 13 EMA of mean of three NHLR (above) is a fairly good (but not as good as the bottom finder) indication of an imminent correction especially if the price is near the top of the channel.

At last ATH, cumulative AD, ADV, and 4 week NHLR (T2100, T2104, & T2123 respectively), failed to make new ATH, manifestation of the same next time should be considered a big red flag for the long side. But don't forget, divergences are just hints and not action points. Markets can keep rising with divergence(s) and fall without one.

Have a little longer term perspective. Period from October 2014- April 2015 (starting in the fall of 2nd Presidential year in US) is the most rewarding time (by historical standards) in the stock market. 50% of gains in SP500 since 1940 occurred during these 6 months (with no negative return period if you include dividends). Adjust your bearish expectations.

Since I am on the long side, you won't see much of me. Talking about the Bullish side on a Bearish board is akin to playing Jazz in front of teenagers; both the performer and attendees will be bored to death. I may return, if and when, a bearish phase is apparent.

Lastly, the views above are just mine (and you know I am nut), be skeptic and verify them before implementing them in you plans.

Wish you all the best

Till next time…


Relax: no comments here

[FlowerGirl]

For the record only

[uempel]

Both charts don't yet give an "all clear". Very close to a buy - but no buy

[fehro]

Wish you all the best

Thanks FlowerGirl for your insight.

[Tutti]

T-2121 is derived from New 13 week highs and lows among Common Stocks traded at NYSE. It's rather good at spotting bottoms. A rise above 44 from below predicts a bottom with ~80% accuracy (since 1987). Using average of 4, 13, & 26 week NHLR (T-2120, T-2121, T-2122) further improves the accuracy to > 90%. Green Horizontal lines show times when T-2121 rose above 44 from below in the last ~ 2 years. I will be watching this for a clue.

The attachment t2121.png is no longer available

Note: Above indicators are also available intraday. A hourly close of > 50 for 13 EMA of mean of three ratios appears to indicate a good reversal point. Be mindful that intraday data is available for the last 16 months only.
-----------------------------------------------------
Read this later when you have time:
SP500 since bottom in Nov 2012 has followed a channel. I expect price to remain in the channel unless proven otherwise. A departure from this type of channel has > 90% chance of coming back to the channel (Kiss back). Consider that point to take the position on the side of the breakout.
Notice purple diagonal lines. Since March 2009 all corrective phases had same slope of the correction. I expect next one to be no different.
A reading of below 50 for 13 EMA of mean of three NHLR (above) is a fairly good (but not as good as the bottom finder) indication of an imminent correction especially if the price is near the top of the channel.

At last ATH, cumulative AD, ADV, and 4 week NHLR (T2100, T2104, & T2123 respectively), failed to make new ATH, manifestation of the same next time should be considered a big red flag for the long side. But don't forget, divergences are just hints and not action points. Markets can keep rising with divergence(s) and fall without one.

Have a little longer term perspective. Period from October 2014- April 2015 (starting in the fall of 2nd Presidential year in US) is the most rewarding time (by historical standards) in the stock market. 50% of gains in SP500 since 1940 occurred during these 6 months (with no negative return period if you include dividends). Adjust your bearish expectations.

Since I am on the long side, you won't see much of me. Talking about the Bullish side on a Bearish board is akin to playing Jazz in front of teenagers; both the performer and attendees will be bored to death. I may return, if and when, a bearish phase is apparent.

Lastly, the views above are just mine (and you know I am nut), be skeptic and verify them before implementing them in you plans.

Wish you all the best

Till next time…


Relax: no comments here

A word on a word, if you will. We didn't experience a correction. The S&P was down ~4.5% off the highs, hardly qualifying it to be a pullback let alone a correction. It might just be semantics, but a full blown correction isn't something we would be debating. We haven't experienced a 10% correction in 28 months.

[fehro]

SPX 1m.. speculative.. minor H&S. or bull flag/triangle

[Cobra]

might see rebound here first then we'll see.

[uempel]

Same chart as before, now on a buy. But beware, this system is tricky

[FlowerGirl]

all corrective phases

A word on a word, if you will. We didn't experience a correction.

Services of a Professor of English are called...

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:08 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2014/10 ... ay-update/

[Tutti]

all corrective phases

A word on a word, if you will. We didn't experience a correction.

Services of a Professor of English are called...

Helpful.

[Al_Dente]

[Al_Dente]

When AA was part of the dow its eps kicked off the season and were watched with relish…. times have changed …
“Alcoa Earnings Beat Their Forecast. Rising aluminum prices are boosting Alcoa and its latest results sent stock prices up in after-hours trading”

elsewhere:
"German Exports Plunged. Germany’s outward trade slumped by 5.8% in August, the biggest fall since the height of the global financing January 2009"

[Cobra]

possible double bottom. this is usually where those aggressive dip buyers come in. let's see if today is of any differences.

[fehro]

5m.. internals a tad weak atm

[champix]

eminis&p intraday, if 1948/1950 area support fails, I will look for a 10 points down move.