11/07/2015 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Institutional buying and selling chart from stocktiming shows more accumulation than distribution, but distribution is rising while accumulation is down, so we might be in topping phase.

• When accumulation and distribution are down means we're in trending phase.

• When accumulation is up, distribution is down, it's a bottoming phase.

• When accumulation is down, distribution is up, it's the topping phase.

[Cobra]

Smart money keeps selling big so it's close to case 1.), a warning sign.

Since there're some arguments about how to read the chart, so it's necessary for me to explain here how I use this chart:

I don't care what's the logic behind the chart. I found it works in the following two cases:

1.) When market up huge, if I see smart money huge short, best if new record short, then I know a short-term pullback is due soon.
2.) When market down, if I see smart money suddenly rises sharply from very negative value, then I know the pullback was over.

So I only use this chart for the above 2 cases. Besides those 2 cases, it means nothing to me. i.e. the absolute value of this chart means nothing to me, I only care if it rises sharply or drops sharply.

[Cobra]

Not good, for many weeks, the weekly stock scans cannot find enough candidates despite indices near all time high
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=1849&p=205499#p205499

[fehro]

Weekly Daily candles. NYSE weekly a little suspicious, inverted hammer/gravestone-ish. And the indexes are displaying divergence, NDX new highs, near all time highs.. yet RUT/TRAN (DJ20) /NYSE lag.

[fehro]

Industry % Weeklies.

[fehro]

T2http://www.worden.com/TeleChartHelp/Con ... rs_T2s.htm Weakness still reins with a few indicators on the verge of a sell signal. SKEW elevated again.

[fehro]

2 Channels % Stocks 1+2 Channels <200d Weekly <40d Daily.

[fehro]

Yields on the move again this week

[AndrasGy]

In October or November we got regularly an NYMO spike below -60 which was an excellent entry in the recent years:
http://schrts.co/kt2H4j
http://schrts.co/Pjrym7
http://schrts.co/pOf5IO
http://schrts.co/sCXF1W
http://schrts.co/ulAF1o

[daytradingES]

This seems like a good call -well done Marcueus.

[fehro]

More charts on Yields

[DellGriffith]

This seems like a good call -well done Marcueus.

Was not top in daily page count. That was 14 the next day.

[daytradingES]

for fun only

[TraderJoe]

China Exports Drop for Fourth Month, Adding to Signs of Slowing

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... -moderates

[marcueus]

This seems like a good call -well done Marcueus.

Was not top in daily page count. That was 14 the next day.

Yep dell you are correct It was more pages - but for that day it was top in daily pages (I am not a medium my friend )

But I do not call top only due to Miyagis puts( great sense of Market our Japanees friend have) and number pages - I call that top 100% from technical point of view (my really hard work) - whats more that top will be top only for few more sessions (in best case scenario spx will bottom this week ) But this time I know when the market will bottom so I will post it also

[Unique]

ES Weekend Update: Keep It Simple Stupid Series (Indecisive action continues)

Friday’s session was similar to Thursday’s action; at the open of the day session the market rolled over and on both occasions the bulls managed to sticksave at the price channel support level. In practical trading terms, we had a great risk 3 points for 10 short at the open and the first hourly bar closed as a large bear engulf – which suggested more downside is likely ahead. Subsequently, similar to Thursday’s price action, the bears quickly failed to keep their momentum going by letting the bulls retrace more than 50% of the prior bar. By 11AM, the hourly candle closed as a large bottom wick and gave us a large intraday range high and low. By then, we knew that there’s a high possibility it was going to be a range bound day since it had a large hourly bearish engulfing that “should not” had retraced by a bottom wick bull bar sticksave. Therefore, the intraday bears had failed once again just like on Thursday and it even failed to reach the first intraday bear target of 2075 by forming LOD at 2077.50.

Overall, the market started to consolidate since Tuesday Nov 2, when it hit the major resistance confluence red trend line. Then, on Wednesday the daily closed as a spinning top candle followed by two consecutive doji candles. However, after all that’s said and done, the market still closed above the trending daily 8EMA bull train support.

What’s next?

Daily closed at 2093.50, this is the 11th consecutive close above the daily 200SMA and it was a doji just like Thursday. Market is still consolidating in a tight range above the daily 8EMA and waiting for the next breakout to occur.
Remember, this is a bull train until price proves otherwise. We’ve been mentioning this for weeks now, but price is king and everything else is just noise.
As long as price remains above the daily 8EMA 2086, the immediate targets are still 2100, 2120 and 2134.
For short term bears: breaks below 2086, then immediate targets are 2077, 2065, and 2057.
---
The Daily Extreme Overbought Signal

Still in extremely overbought region, but price needs to breakdown in order to confirm the sell setup for the swing timeframe. The possibility of a fast and furious breakdown is still there. As mentioned previously, price is king and the signals are just setup potentials to keep in mind. At this point, price needs to decisively go under 2070 first for bears to even begin their aggressive swing short.
Roadmap and thoughts:
Price has now closed above the 78.6% fibonacci retracement level. Currently, this leads us to believe that the 100% full retracement at 2134 becomes very likely and will eventually be fulfilled. The key issue with this is that we cannot predict if it does this within 20 sessions, or get a dip back to 2030 first then go for 2134, or it ultimately fails. This is just a very general roadmap/thought to be kept in the back of our minds. Remember, the KISS series focuses on high probability immediate targets with our approach of the market level by level, hence the high win rate.

The first try at Daily 20EMA is a BTFD setup

Even if bears manage to reverse next week or within these two weeks; daily bulls may have a first try BTFD setup at the daily 20EMA setup. We count this rally from the 1861 vs 1861.5 hourly bottom to 2010 as Leg 1. The bounce has never had to retest the daily 20EMA yet, but retested the daily 8EMA 4 times and bounced off it. This means it has been a massive bull squeeze run that the very first dip to 20EMA should sticksave. However, just because first try BTFD at daily 20EMA is a great setup, it does not mean it has to be a daily chart scale bounce (50-100 points). It could just be an intraday 20-30 points bounce then retest the daily 20EMA again if bears manage to have that much conviction.

---

Our Swing Position
• Added 10% Dec Monthly IWM Calls (buystop executed near end of Friday’s session)
Total = 30% Dec Puts (SPY+QQQ) and 30% IWM Dec Calls
We will upgrade the IWM target to 123.50 if it can decisively close strong above our first target at 120-121 first. IWM Daily 200SMA = 120.82
To reiterate: we are not great swing traders; this is a long learning process. Our swing account represents only 20% of total trading dollars and the day trading account represents the other 80%. For example, if the day trading account is 800K USD, swing account is 200K USD. Follow our intraday commentary only if you want great risk vs reward setups.

See blog for better format http://aapltechnicals.blogspot.ca/

[marcueus]

Text in Polish but Pictures tells more than thousand words

https://naturabramy.wordpress.com/2015/ ... y-szczytu/

[user13]

Does anyone know of a site where you can see just the main key market moving event for overseas trading for the upcoming week?

[daytradingES]

Does anyone know of a site where you can see just the main key market moving event for overseas trading for the upcoming week?

try barcarts and google:
Barcharts has the international events such as OECD etc

some links
http://www.barchart.com/stocks/marketoverview

http://www.google.com/finance

from barcharts this morning news on slowing world trade lower growth est and perhaps recession;
7:46 AM 11/9/2015
from barcharts
FILE - In this file photo dated Oct. 28, 2010, an oil worker looks out, over the Petrobras offshore ship platform over Tupi field in Santos Bay off the coast of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Climate change could push more than 100 million people into extreme poverty by 2030 by disrupting agriculture and fueling the spread of malaria and other diseases, the World Bank said in a report Sunday Nov. 8, 2015, also stating that Carbon emissions are expected to rise for many years as China, India and other developing countries expand the use of fossil fuels to power their economies. (AP Photo/Felipe Dana, FILE)

PARIS (AP) — A slowdown in international trade could be a harbinger of a new recession for the world's leading economies, a leading global policy organization warned Monday.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development says trade figures are worrisome because the stagnating or declining rates of trade seen this year "have, in the past, been associated with global recession."

In its world economic outlook issued Monday, the Paris-based group projected global trade growth at 2 percent this year, improving to 3.6 percent next year.

In only five years of the past 50 has global trade grown at 2 percent or less, and each time has coincided with a world economic downturn, said Angel Gurria, the OECD's secretary-general.

"Trade should be growing at about double the speed of growth of the world economy because trade is always a locomotive," Gurria said. Instead, the OECD predicted the world economy would grow 2.9 percent this year and 3.3 percent next year.

The group says that in contrast to two years ago, when sluggish trade was blamed on advanced economies, the fault now centers on emerging markets such as China. As China transitions from massive infrastructure investment and manufacturing toward consumption and services, commodity prices have fallen, hurting exporters such as Australia, Brazil, Canada and Russia.

New figures released Monday in China highlighted the extent of the downturn: the country's imports fell by 18.8 percent in October from a year earlier, while exports shrank 6.9 percent.
-----
then read market overview
http://www.barchart.com/newsletters/usmorningcall

then google inter

[daytradingES]

Text in Polish but Pictures tells more than thousand words

https://naturabramy.wordpress.com/2015/ ... y-szczytu/

I haven't done a pitchfork in a while so here's a view with that
http://screencast.com/t/P9ey1IfIMhXD

(perhaps if it is inline with the gentleman's blog you can post the URL there for me )