03/30/2016 Live Update

[Cobra]

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This bull shall have legs.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2016/03 ... ay-update/

[fehro]

As per late yesterday.. gap up over daily downtrends.. green channel top right. Headfake? or next higher trends

[fehro]

fwiw..5m SPX500 CFD ~/ES ish.. super sloppy H&S

[uempel]

SPX broke out of blue channel ...

[fehro]

SPX mind the morning gap.. and Dec 29/30 gap in the 2077-78 range

[josephli]

depends on how the day close, it may mean long term trend changes. that is very surprising.

[Junior Buffett]

SPX broke out of blue channel ...

9.png

Uempel,

Do you think this rally will not end before seeing all time high? Everyone had their targets but this BULL is meeting their targets and exceeding.

When center banks around the world are blessing this BULL, I don't see any reason in near future to believe that we will see anything below 1960. Also Cobras's call for lower low than Feb low is void, I believe.

Thanks
JB

[fehro]

INDEX dailies, INDU and SPX closest to all time highs..

[wanteasymoney]

GM

Winnin the first money Im all in

[josephli]

SPX broke out of blue channel ...

9.png

Uempel,

Do you think this rally will not end before seeing all time high? Everyone had their targets but this BULL is meeting their targets and exceeding.

When center banks around the world are blessing this BULL, I don't see any reason in near future to believe that we will see anything below 1960. Also Cobras's call for lower low than Feb low is void, I believe.

Thanks
JB

IMHO, the lower low call may still be valid. we are in a very very big and long term consolidation. outcome of both directions are equally possible.
The unusual (or usual) thing is the whole rally lacks of clear patterns, or past patterns has been less effective.

[K447]

... Winnin the first money I'm all in

Do you have an exit strategy?

[Tutti]

SPX broke out of blue channel ...

9.png

Uempel,

Do you think this rally will not end before seeing all time high? Everyone had their targets but this BULL is meeting their targets and exceeding.

When center banks around the world are blessing this BULL, I don't see any reason in near future to believe that we will see anything below 1960. Also Cobras's call for lower low than Feb low is void, I believe.

Thanks
JB

Trees don't grow to the sky. Especially when everybody thinks they do.

[JFR]

Overnight gap up on ES, NQ and YM.

[fehro]

Monthlies.. close tomorrow..

[uempel]

WTIC: interesting article in today's FT



Financial Times

Last updated: March 29, 2016 5:10 pm
Hedge funds bet on higher oil prices

Anjli Raval and David Sheppard


Hedge funds have established a record bet on rising oil prices, just as many market participants think a two-month rally could be running out of steam.
The record position, spread between international benchmark Brent and its US counterpart, has built up as oil has bounced more than 40 per cent since hitting a 13-year low of $30 a barrel in January, with funds prepared to bet the worst of the price rout is over.

But traders say one-sided positioning — equivalent to more than half a billion barrels of crude — risks exacerbating any pullback in prices if funds move to take profits en masse, or should a provisional deal to restrict output between large producers unravel.

“Considerable correction potential has built up,” said Carsten Fritsch at Commerzbank. “This could drive prices down as soon as speculative investors start taking profits.”
Saudi Arabia and Russia are set to lead a meeting of big producers in Doha next month that will aim to freeze output at January levels, in the first big concerted action to end a near two-year oil glut that has hammered the budgets of many commodity-dependent economies.
But doubts about the effectiveness of the plan have grown, with global production still running well above demand. Any deal is seen to require a number of caveats to persuade enough countries to endorse such an agreement.

Saudi Arabia will consent to the deal even if regional rival Iran continues to raise output following the end of years of sanctions against Tehran’s oil industry. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia could also soon raise production from a 300,000 barrel a day field in the countries’ jointly operated neutral zone.
Brent fell 3 per cent or $1.27 on Tuesday to $39 a barrel, having lost almost a tenth of its value since touching a year-high of $42.54 on March 18. US marker West Texas Intermediate dipped $1.24 to $38.15 a barrel on Tuesday.

Ballooning global inventories and the possible limited effect of any deal in Doha is helping to keep prices under pressure. Some US shale producers have also been aggressively hedging, locking in any price high enough to service debt built up during the industry’s rapid growth between 2010 and 2015.
“There is a rebalancing on the way but we are still running a surplus and stocks are building up as far as we can see,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB. “There is a clear risk for a pullback in Brent crude oil.”

The record hedge fund position is made up of a net long — the difference between bets on rising and falling prices — totalling 364,000 futures and options contracts in Brent and 215,000 in WTI across exchanges in London and New York.With each contract equal to 1,000 barrels of oil, the total speculator paper position is equivalent to almost six days of global oil demand or 579m barrels of crude. Supply outages in Nigeria and Iraq have provided some price support, while US shale oil output is finally slowing, potentially avoiding a collapse back to below $30 a barrel again.

[wanteasymoney]

... Winnin the first money I'm all in

Do you have an exit strategy?

Maybe half to one year

[Trades with cats]

Just got a sell signal I am ignoring for now.

[Junior Buffett]

SPX broke out of blue channel ...

9.png

Uempel,

Do you think this rally will not end before seeing all time high? Everyone had their targets but this BULL is meeting their targets and exceeding.

When center banks around the world are blessing this BULL, I don't see any reason in near future to believe that we will see anything below 1960. Also Cobras's call for lower low than Feb low is void, I believe.

Thanks
JB

Trees don't grow to the sky. Especially when everybody thinks they do.

I think, everybody believes that this rally is not real and we are going to see sizable correction..that to me is the biggest threat to BEARS...

[JFR]

Gusher in oil, CL.