03/02/2017 Live Update

[Cobra]

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the pullback likely would be bought.

[Cobra]

members only update starts here: http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2017/03 ... ay-update/

[Denali92]

Hi!

I am back from my family focused break.

March employment preview is posted here:

http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2017/03 ... ay-update/

Full March preview will be post employment,

-D

[BullBear52x]

buy this dip short term then will see how the day goes.

[BullBear52x]

Back in the good old week, this floor should hold up

[Trades with cats]

Two things from last night

MarketWatch was the first to show http://thearorareport.com/chart-trump-s ... rket-rally
which showed that all those block trades we were discussing yesterday now fit into a narrative. The Hedge Funds (our favorite 28 year old Ivy League history majors) thought Trump address would be a disaster because of a lack of details and bet big on a sure thing just like they did on Brexit. Net 3/4's of yesterday was short covering as the really big boys squeezed them hard.

The woman who wanted to be Hillaries Treasury Secretary towed the company line last night setting off significant currency moves and making the March hike pretty close to a sure thing. Final confirmation comes Friday where anything less than full dove comments from the Chair will be seen as confirmation. Mish Shedlock said last night that the Fed had to move prior to the President's address to Congress or risk accusations of political action, thus the most powerful regional member, Dudley of New York went on CNBC to make a clear case citing signs of economic strength that apparently you must wear the special FOMC x-ray vision glasses to see as the FOMC's economic models ratchet down to under 2% growth.

[Cobra]

members only update at 10:00 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2017/03 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

maybe pullback isn't over.

[BullBear52x]

/ES on short term swing thing is not so bullish under 2394, my short term is now " find excuse to sell under this level"

[Al_Dente]

the bulk of the new highs yesterday were large caps
(no surprise)
chart as of last night’s close, daily

[BullBear52x]

My crystal ball, they are not going to make it easy for bears.

[Junior Buffett]

My crystal ball, they are not going to make it easy for bears.

I agree, VIX tells the story that this BULL is not giving up anytime soon...

[Al_Dente]

NY declining stocks = 2.2 x advancing stocks
NY declining volume = 2.2 x advancing volume

Both were near 3x at the open
Bears still have the bias, but are losing a bit of steam at the moment

[Trades with cats]

Ahhh! Cognitive dissidence is going to explode my head. Zerohedge claims yesterday was the second largest fund flow into the SPY etf in six years. So where is the huge spike up of stock buying into the close to balance the fund? Sticking with the short covering story is the only thing that makes sense and also accounts for the dark pool transactions at the appropriate price before the speech. Until proven otherwise I am doubting record level retail inflows as Hedge Funds love to use etfs and black pools.

It matters because the short covering narrative means much of yesterday is already gone and price is levitating. Also explains the total lack of follow through.

[QED]

Ahhh! Cognitive dissidence is going to explode my head. Zerohedge claims yesterday was the second largest fund flow into the SPY etf in six years. So where is the huge spike up of stock buying into the close to balance the fund? Sticking with the short covering story is the only thing that makes sense and also accounts for the dark pool transactions at the appropriate price before the speech. Until proven otherwise I am doubting record level retail inflows as Hedge Funds love to use etfs and black pools.

It matters because the short covering narrative means much of yesterday is already gone and price is levitating. Also explains the total lack of follow through.

You are making some very good points!

[Trades with cats]

jawbone Express for tomorrow. From the Economic Calendar.

Charles Evans and Jeffrey Lacker speak
10:15 AM ET
Jerome Powell Speaks
12:15 PM ET
Janet Yellen Speaks
1:00 PM ET
Stanley Fischer Speaks
1:00 PM ET

From the Financial Times
THE DOVES THE HAWKS OTHERS
Janet Yellen Stanley Fischer Jerome Powell
Lael Brainard Patrick Harker Robert Kaplan
Daniel Tarullo
William Dudley
Charles Evans
Neel Kashkari

So far in favor of raising soon this week:Dudley, Harker, Kaplan, Williams, and Brainard
Market has odds closing in on 90% so by lunch time tomorrow we will have an answer. after Evans, Powell and Yellen speak.

[Junior Buffett]

http://www.thetradenews.com/Trading-Ven ... l-closure/

[Trades with cats]

So the question you have to answer before buying the dip is has the market fully priced in a rate hike?

[fehro]

Bitcoin > Gold new record… fwiw.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-0 ... arity-gold

[Trades with cats]

So much for the usual 30 minute rally into the London/Frankfort close. Price drop is now 2 standard deviations below VWAP.