July
[Almanac]
“Over the last 21 years the market’s performance in July has been mixed. July’s performance tends to either be quite hot (gains in excess of 3%) or rather frigid (losses of 3% or more). Over this time period July is DJIA’s and S&P 500 sixth best performing month of the year. July is the 7th best month for Russell 1000, 4th worst for NASDAQ and the worst for Russell 2000. Average performance ranges from a loss of 1.1% for Russell 2000 to a 0.9% gain by DJIA.
Based upon the chart … July opens strongly, but then generally goes nowhere until the eighth trading day when a mid-month rally begins. This rally then ends around the thirteenth trading day. At which time, the trend becomes lower to sideways. When comparing gains made on the first trading day to full-month performance, S&P 500, Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 are all lower on the last trading day. DJIA and NASDAQ only add modestly to first trading day gains. Even though full-month July performance is broadly positive, it was all (or the majority) the result of first trading day gains. This is why we consider July to be one of the “Worst Four Months” (July to October) of the year.”