09/27/2022 Live Update

[Cobra]

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Not sure whether it's a double bottom here or not (red arrows), it could be a consolidation range (purple lines), which, however, looks like break above the range high is more likely, the question is whether the breakout is for real or not, if not real then it's still a consolidation range, only larger. Anyway, for now the bias is up.

[JFR]

ES daily. Getting a bounce. A small bull candle so far. An inside bar. I thought it might plunge right through the June low. But whatever it does is OK.

[JFR]

ES 60 minutes. In a trading range since Sunday. And now the range has tightened up above the Pivot.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes. Stuck beneath resistance at 3725. From a wide range, into a narrow range. Above R1. Riding the EMA 20.

[alphahorn]

yields and DXY taking a pause for now

[alphahorn]

that didn't last long, especially the 30Y

[BullBear52x]

gap up, inside day, $CPC started out under 1 again today.

[BullBear52x]

same playbook, bullish bias, can we breakout and up away?

[merryme]

Yesterday's analysis...Bottom process on fast chart (maybe). Note final volume has big effort and little reward. Could break either way. Should see a retest of breakout.

[BullBear52x]

$CPC is back over 1 again, what a mess, not bullish anymore.

[Al_Dente]

[MS's Mike Wilson] "Based on our analysis that every 1% change in the DXY has around a -0.5% impact on S&P 500 earnings, 4Q S&P 500 earnings will face an approximate 10% headwind to growth all else equal."

[JFR]

NYSE Tick and ES 1 minute. Good start for the bulls. The bears finally decided to show up.

[Al_Dente]

8:30 Durable Goods
9:00 Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:00 FHFA House Price Index
9:55 Fed's Bullard Speech
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 New Home Sales
10:00 Richmond Fed Mfg.
1:00 PM Results of $44B, 5-Year Note Auction
1:00 PM Money Supply
8:35 PM Fed's Daly Speech

[BullBear52x]

About $CPC, back under 1 as of now. bullish bias again. want to see we trade out of the range to have a trend day. what a day.

[JFR]

ES 5 minutes. It's a bucking bronco. The moves are still fairly clean for the scalpers. But ya gotta be quick.

Taking a break ...

[jademann]

The bond market is several times the size of the stock market. If TLT losses are representative, then someone has lost a lot of money. TLT is now $101 and change on its way to $85?

[Cobra]

Members only update at 10:08 am
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2022/09 ... ay-update/

[brokebybernacke2]

[MS's Mike Wilson] "Based on our analysis that every 1% change in the DXY has around a -0.5% impact on S&P 500 earnings, 4Q S&P 500 earnings will face an approximate 10% headwind to growth all else equal."

great post, earnings dead ahead, lag effect , have to get thru that first.

[brokebybernacke2]

[MS's Mike Wilson] "Based on our analysis that every 1% change in the DXY has around a -0.5% impact on S&P 500 earnings, 4Q S&P 500 earnings will face an approximate 10% headwind to growth all else equal."

great post, earnings dead ahead, lag effect , have to get thru that first.

? is, is it priced in already?

[JFR]

SPY 15. Extended hours. Looking like a range day.

Pbar, as tracer bullet, gives a target, the previous day's close. A definite possibility. "Target locked."