04/05/2025 Weekend Update

[Cobra]

Down 2 weeks in a row, the next week has 63% chances to close up.

[JFR]

SPY daily

MACD down

Histogram down

Sto down

Trend down

Bollinger being pushed hard on its envelope

Gaps huge

Marubozus present

Volume at the extreme

The EMAs are down and in the proper order

Is the bottom near? Ha ha ha. Excuse me. Umm not likely

Anything positive? Bargains ahead

This trader has --> gone golfing

Have a good weekend.

[jademann]

4800 for a bounce. stronger support at 4200. Stronger support still at 3600. GL!

[JFR]

From a diverse portfolio perspective for 2025 ...

The biggest winners were GLD and TLT.

The biggest losers were QQQ, SPY and USO.

[BullBear52x]

"It is what it is department" Market is crashing, how to spot a reversal will be the game in town. then and now and still on going with no end insight.

$VVIX=147.16
$VIX= 45.31
$CPC = 1.18 (>1.2 is where the blood on the street, very close now)
only 5.28% of stock in SPX are above 20 DMA; 11% >50 DMA; 22.48%> 200 DMA
Bottom is near volatilty is excellent for the day traders. long term deep buy discount if history were to repeated.

Back to "only price pays"
Swing setup: rip will be sold.

Intraday: not a drop of bullishness. no reversal to call to. Note to self " each trading day is random and if I can identify Top or Bottom fast enough the better the P/L" trade well, Peace!

[BullBear52x]

Bonus chart: RSI 14 = 23.25, a dead cat bounce zone. early bird special. down to May low might be where the market wants to take us. good luck in a week to come.

[JFR]

DIA IWM QQQ SPY

Numbers ... Can they be perfect? Ball park? Big picture?

I did some calculations from StockCharts images. I went over them twice, but will not debate them. Ha ha.

(Coffee house debates/arguments can be tiresome and pointless. Rarely does someone say: "You're right.'')

One site says less than 10% down is a dip; over 10% down is a correction; over 20% down is a crash (or a bear market). I am OK with these.

DIA down 27.1% Crash

IWM down 27.5% Crash

QQQ 21.9% Crash

SPY down 17.4% Correction

But ... but ... but ... Ha ha.

[jademann]

This at the point where people want out and there are no buyers even for a dead cat bounce. Aka catching a falling knife.