Cobra's Market View

Double top instead of consolidation?

Cobra, do Fridays usually end strong or weak?

Petsamo wrote:Unless earnings negatively influence after-hours trading, we should gap up tomorrow

How so?

That's what they make straddle and strangle positions for. :twisted: 8-) :twisted: There is no free lunch. I ran several backtests in thinkorswim selling or buying straddles before earnings. Volatility dies off right after announcement, and sometimes the unerlying moves, sometimes doesn't. Hard to ...

That's what they make straddle and strangle positions for. :twisted: 8-) :twisted: There is no free lunch. I ran several backtests in thinkorswim selling or buying straddles before earnings. Volatility dies off right after announcement, and sometimes the unerlying moves, sometimes doesn't. Hard to ...

Cobra wrote:I'll give 49% chances.

!?!?

As long as the dividends are protected, who cares about NAV. PHK got slammed the past three days because dividends are suppose to have peaked. To what extent they will decline by, no one seems to know. The 11.7% dividend yield is an actual yield based on previous monthly dividends, not promised div...

Anyone watching treasuries? Buy PHK is you want dividends. PHK has a dividend yield of 11.7% (annualized) TLT has a dividend yield of 2.56% Ouch. here is some bad advice. PHK is currently trading 45% over NAV (Net Asset Value). It is a closed end funds comprised of bonds. I would NEVER pay 45% prem...

Anyone watching treasuries? Buy PHK is you want dividends. PHK has a dividend yield of 11.7% (annualized) TLT has a dividend yield of 2.56% Ouch. here is some bad advice. PHK is currently trading 45% over NAV (Net Asset Value). It is a closed end funds comprised of bonds. I would NEVER pay 45% prem...

The put/call ratio also suggested that big guys loading puts for a coming drop in markets. Or that they are successfully scaring people. I mean common, everyone and their dog now is blogging about the coming drop in equities. I know people who held puts through expiration a couple of times who are ...

Does anyone have HFT charts?
I'm wondering what role they played this week. Market seems erratic to me.
SWalsh decided not to return?

An “expert” on Fast Money last night called VXX “an incinerator” because it burns up cash, is designed to go to zero, and you should never trade it. Doesn't that make it an automatic short-n-hold? Yes, i thought about this many times, but I am afraid I will get margin calls at the worst time, just ...

MrMiyagi wrote:Anyone have access to VX_F? The VIX futures? Apparently the August contracts are in the 16.45$ range.

Future contracts are usually higher in this kind of environment (contango). Which is the reason most people lose money with VXX and don't know why.

anyone taking out insurance on their long term portfolios? eg buying TLT, writing covered calls, or just buying a few OTM puts? Always. Not buying TLT though. just increasing cash levels sounds about right. i'll be writing some calls and raising cash and buying a small position in some bonds this a...

jarbo456 wrote:anyone taking out insurance on their long term portfolios?

eg buying TLT, writing covered calls, or just buying a few OTM puts?

Always.
Not buying TLT though.

I'm using unsettled funds. Get margin The fact that I can't sell is not necessarily a bad thing. It may be much higher 3 days from now than a few hours after buying. I have margin on some accounts but I don't use it. You don't have to use the margin and leverage the account, just gives you addition...

Petsamo wrote: I'm using unsettled funds.

Get margin

Does anyone know where SWalsh went? Is he back from vacation yet? He's on a 2 week vacation. I think he's on a permanent vacation... Too bad! He was one of the few people here who knew the market quite well and that's obvious from his charts and commentary. I'll miss his input if that is true. How ...

Does anyone know where SWalsh went? Is he back from vacation yet? Those HFT charts would be valuable at a day like today. Are the bots holding us up artificially or were they pushing us down yesterday. Check the P&F chart I posted a moment ago. Nothing artificial here, just hope for further liq...

Does anyone know where SWalsh went? Is he back from vacation yet? Those HFT charts would be valuable at a day like today. Are the bots holding us up artificially or were they pushing us down yesterday. Check the P&F chart I posted a moment ago. Nothing artificial here, just hope for further liq...