Cobra's Market View

The rise on Friday looks genuine for the short term, as NYHL was negative five days in a row and that's a common signal of a bottom. In the medium term there's a nasty pattern developing on !PRDIFEUR (Stockcharts Pring European Diffusion). If it plays out then we'd get about a week of good bullish m...

Some topping indicators... DAX breadth DAX.PNG from indexindicators.com Divergence of breadth and DAX value. SKEW SKEW.PNG from barchart.com. Clear SKEW spike. WLSH WLSH.PNG from stockcharts.com Divergence of value and MFI. The MFI must now fall for this indicator to trigger. Like everybody else, I ...

Short term cycle suggests up a few days early next week ADV0615.PNG You can see the NYADV cycle has failed once recently, May 27 to June 2. It does this from time to time. The effect is temporary (and means always run with SPX for the subsequent trend, in this case up from June 3 to 5). Next week we...

FYI. May VIX contract expires at the open on Wednesday 21st. Many thanks. I wondered why Opex+3 was significant. I've done the research and seen it was often the start of a down, though not as often as the first few days of a calendar month. The relatively safe period is between NFP+4 and Opex+2 so...

Opex+3 (Wednesday 21st) is historically a day when bear moves often start. Looking at the NYADV short term cycle, we will be about ready for a down move by then, so the question is whether it breaks support or doesn't. Personally I think the chance of a break down is better than 50%. Reasons: bad br...

The last of my US topping signals (swing) was triggered yesterday, that one being a peak on BPNYA RS. Other markets such as UK and DAX are already well into a bear. Cyclically I don't expect a bottom until the end of the month, though it might be a little earlier. Half-Wall cycles of around 8 weeks ...

For anybody wondering why the bulls are struggling. Longer term chart on 200 day breadth... SPXA200R.PNG This kind of divergence usually ends badly. And the current bounce to around 82 is pretty much classic behaviour before a fall. Only problem is, you don't really get the timing. A fall could be n...

Swing timeframe. As you've probably read elsewhere, we seem to be following a 1929 analog with astonishing accuracy, which places us a couple of weeks before a crash. The recent dip and recovery fit exactly. Detailed chart at prezelcharts.com. This analog has also been mentioned by Phil Davis and To...

Sold my (swing) shorts today. Not sure it's the exact bottom but I got a strong bottoming signal from a NYADV:NYHGH peak and NYADV solid candle. There's still a chance we might make a lower low tomorrow, though it shouldn't be too serious with bottom signals already in the bag. Otherwise I'm looking...

A few missing bottom indicators suggest to me the down isn't over yet, most notably TICK 20ema which should be down near 70 and is currently around 185. So I have today as point A in a down ABC. In terms of cycle timing I feel final bottom (C) is not due until around mid Feb. No technical clues when...

Anybody noticed XRT (retail sector) recently? This is the first time since its inception 7 years ago that it's gone down so much (and RS touching 30) without dragging SPX down with it. XRTjan.PNG I can see a few things are keeping SPX elevated, like NYADV way high, so I'm not shorting yet (swing tra...

More likely scenario is 38.2 - 50back before another leg higher (Xmas rally) something like posted here: http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/download/file.php?id=55472&mode=view Thanks KeiZai, I reached exactly the same conclusion through looking at trend cycles. The cycle starting October 9 has st...

CPCE suggests the rally might be over.

We're in a bullish phase (swing), but with a limitation imposed by SPX weekly, which does not seriously break its upper Bollinger except for a blow-off top. I've drawn in a candle for next week, showing a maximum high of around 1800. SP 1114.png This week's limit is not shown, but would be around 17...

Redkite: Can u post a chart showing your NYADV movement and your NYDNV spike thanks Here they are. See the solid bar in NYADV, similar to the October bottom, and many others in the past 1108 NYADV.PNG And NYDNV over my regular limit 1108 NYDNV.PNG As Out of Bounds said, this is an odd time to get a...

Either way, what happened yesterday is what happens at the end of downturns not at the beginning, and you'll find that's the case if you backtest the measures. So it's a strange event and not supportive of a downtrend to follow. I shall be more careful about calling it capitulation. This reminds me...

A word of caution for swing bears. Yesterday was not just a down day it was a capitulation day, as measured by NYADV and NYDNV. Capitulation days usually occur near the end of a downtrend. It's very rare to get one at the start. Difficult to interpret but I've taken it as a signal to sell my shorts...

A word of caution for swing bears. Yesterday was not just a down day it was a capitulation day, as measured by NYADV and NYDNV. Capitulation days usually occur near the end of a downtrend. It's very rare to get one at the start. Difficult to interpret but I've taken it as a signal to sell my shorts,...

Not an item for precision trading, but not something to ignore either. Libor.PNG The jump in the ratio will usually hold back stocks. I'm not short yet (for swing rather than intraday), just waiting for a tiny bit more action from NYDNV - when its MacD signal line rises over zero. Assuming we get th...

TED is unhappy. TED.PNG And Libor3:Libor ratio is rising a bit. As other posts above have noted, something is amiss in the credit market. Maybe it's just a blip caused by the Washington impasse, but if the credit market doesn't improve then the main indices won't be going up. Edit: late addition to ...