02/23/2013 Weekend Update

[nightlyhawk]

Statistics from DOW gaining >100-pt while TLT also closed in green on Friday.

[shaca]

USD/CAD is going to do what USD/JPY has done

[quientuves]

SORRY, NON-TRADING RELATED:

An old Cherokee is teaching his grandson about life. “A fight is going on inside me,” he said to the boy.

“It is a terrible fight and it is between two wolves. One is evil – he is anger, envy, sorrow, regret, greed, arrogance, self-pity, guilt, resentment, inferiority, lies, false pride, superiority, and ego.” He continued, “The other is good – he is joy, peace, love, hope, serenity, humility, kindness, benevolence, empathy, generosity, truth, compassion, and faith. The same fight is going on inside you – and inside every other person, too.”

The grandson thought about it for a minute and then asked his grandfather, “Which wolf will win?”

The old Cherokee simply replied, “The one you feed.”
Which wolf are you feeding?

The one who is suffering from hunger and fear while the other two fight.

[Royal Flush]

USD/CAD is going to do what USD/JPY has done

shaca, your statement is a shock to me as I am sure it would be to any Canadian. Under what premise do you perceive the Bank of Canada is going to devalue our currency as Japan has done?

[jademann]

Statistics from DOW gaining >100-pt while TLT also closed in green on Friday.

nightly, do the next day/week gains refer to gains in DOW or TLT?

[Royal Flush]

II and AAII. II backed a little, so basically those survey doesn't say anything about the market.

Thanks for your WE updates Cobra. Do you give any significance to the fact that neither II nor AAII has got to the excessive levels of bullish sentiment that has been exhibited in prior years during rallies and at market tops? In other words wouldn't you expect that the market go higher to reach the sentiment levels of prior tops?

Statistics show AAII doesn't matter when it became too bullish.

II may matter when it became too bullish. It was very bullish, now backed a little, so maybe still in effect or maybe means SPX more up. I don't know. Read the weekend report (I'm writing now), you will know what to see if there's more up ahead as early as the next Monday.

Excellent WE Report, thanks Cobra.

[Harapa]

Performance of SPY is highly correlated with German DAX index in recent years. Since VIX is mostly predictive of the direction of the US market, can VDAX (VIX equivalent for DAX index) be used even as early warning indicator? Short answer is yes.

In this analysis, I applied identical analytical methods to find a setting that correctly aligned with turning points in SPY since 2006 (Why 2006? Because VDAX data is only available since 2006). Interestingly signals given by VDAX not only completely overlapped with signals given by VIX, but were most of the time earlier by few days (thus offered a better entry/exit for SPY) than signals given by VIX. I used two data sets for VDAX. One that include all trading days (when DAX is open) seems to signal even earlier than the data that uses only days when US market is open. Idk what this means?
As of close on Friday both versions issued a sell signal for SPY (I circled the actual values since histo is too small to notice on this chart.
Note: Green Histo bullish SPY, Red Histo bearish SPY.

[Unique]

Silver + Gold are worth a look

[mylock]

Paging KEIZAI. I am not an Elliot Wave guy so I was wondering if you had a wave count on SBUX. I shorted after the 50 DMA and the trendline was taken. Now i will watch to see if this is the good night kiss back to the trendline. Thanks!!

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SBUX&p ... &listNum=1

[KeiZai]

Some quick charts

SPY

SPY-23.png

XIV : my two (re)shorting spots

XIV-23.png

Coffee 4 Clark bud

Coffee-Clark1.png

Coffee-Clark2.png

MUCHO GRACIAS KEIZAI! Love the charts. So simple in appearance, EW which I know nothing about, and spot on most of the time. Great work!

Thanks pal! Always love to hear positive feedback, this is why I am posting here

[KeiZai]

USD/CAD is going to do what USD/JPY has done

Hi shaca, I am also watching USDCAD, huge potential there just don't know if now is the time to breakout, I played this up leg but now I am in short and looking for 0.95 there we can likely see bottom of some kind, but if we breakout I will take the long trade for sure

Here some charts from my forex drawer

DX

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Euro update : viewtopic.php?f=2&t=832&p=118844#p118844

Good long opportunity for at least +200pips with small risk (stop)

Euro index update: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=828&p=118425#p118425

[KeiZai]

Paging KEIZAI. I am not an Elliot Wave guy so I was wondering if you had a wave count on SBUX. I shorted after the 50 DMA and the trendline was taken. Now i will watch to see if this is the good night kiss back to the trendline. Thanks!!

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SBUX&p ... &listNum=1

Hi mylock! , yeah I posted one ST last weekend here : viewtopic.php?f=2&t=828&p=118425#p118425 (last chart)

In the big picture I see bull market still intact but in the smaller one is SBUX in my opinion consolidating in the either flag or triangle (wave 4) the open gap is pretty good target imo but ideal would be +-39

in the very ST the structure could look like this

If you have any more questions feel free to ask

[TraderJoe]

Performance of SPY is highly correlated with German DAX index in recent years. Since VIX is mostly predictive of the direction of the US market, can VDAX (VIX equivalent for DAX index) be used even as early warning indicator? Short answer is yes.

In this analysis, I applied identical analytical methods to find a setting that correctly aligned with turning points in SPY since 2006 (Why 2006? Because VDAX data is only available since 2006). Interestingly signals given by VDAX not only completely overlapped with signals given by VIX, but were most of the time earlier by few days (thus offered a better entry/exit for SPY) than signals given by VIX. I used two data sets for VDAX. One that include all trading days (when DAX is open) seems to signal even earlier than the data that uses only days when US market is open. Idk what this means?
As of close on Friday both versions issued a sell signal for SPY (I circled the actual values since histo is too small to notice on this chart.
Note: Green Histo bullish SPY, Red Histo bearish SPY.

WOW, this chart is AWESOME. Please post it each morning if you have time.
Thanks,
Joe

[mylock]

Paging KEIZAI. I am not an Elliot Wave guy so I was wondering if you had a wave count on SBUX. I shorted after the 50 DMA and the trendline was taken. Now i will watch to see if this is the good night kiss back to the trendline. Thanks!!

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SBUX&p ... &listNum=1

Hi mylock! , yeah I posted one ST last weekend here : viewtopic.php?f=2&t=828&p=118425#p118425 (last chart)

In the big picture I see bull market still intact but in the smaller one is SBUX in my opinion consolidating in the either flag or triangle (wave 4) the open gap is pretty good target imo but ideal would be +-39

SBUX-24.png

in the very ST the structure could look like this

SBUX-24-2.png

If you have any more questions feel free to ask

Thank you KeiZai. Much appreciated.

[ClarkW]

Entering distribution phase? Chart is from New Trading Systems http://stockcharts.com/public/3421479/tenpp

[ClarkW]

Bearish Butterfly on $SPX Daily? Same source as above

[Mr. BachNut]

Update on weekly SKEW chart:

A correction warning issued on Friday suggesting good odds for a lower weekly SPX close in the next three weeks.
However, given how last week unfolded there are two interpretations.

One is that a correction started last week and isn't finished. There is more down to come, and we should see lows that at least hit SPX 1496.33.

The other is that the market is still setting up for the corrective move, and there is some more up ahead before the correction hits.
The reason for this interpretation is Friday's rally, not only in the SPX but also the SKEW.
While the Friday close did meet the technical criteria for the warning, it was actually a close call as SKEW was rising quite dramatically on the daily chart.
We want the warning to flash when SKEW starts trending down, and it may still be trending up.
We'll know next week if the SKEW keeps climbing.
The IMPORTANT TAKEAWAY, however, is that while a lot of timid bears were scurrying for their caves on Friday, the folks in the options market that drive SKEW were actually reloading for a downmove. They were sellers of the rally if you will. If Friday's rally continues into next week, I would expect SKEW to keep rising as the corrective moment gets closer.

[Heck]

While Big4 CFTC COT are long-term short 81.59 USD,
USD above 50 and 200 DMA with current 103 intermediate-term PnF target:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=%24usd

[jademann]

A chart I drew this morning under the title "the big picture:"

https://sites.google.com/site/stoplosstraders/index

[TWT]

Weekly Technical Analysis

Link of the article:

http://www.thewavetrading.com/2013/02/2 ... ysis-0224/