02/23/2013 Weekend Update

[gappy]

walayat.gif

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article38931.html

[joegamma]

Thanks all the weekenders for insight and charts!
per ZH sunday afternoon, yen making fresh lows on new dove BOJ gov ...watching Snake's 2 scenarios for Monday, here was friday's level, now approaching 94.70 today

[joegamma]

yen plummets now...I may regret owning puts if spy sees big ticket buying above these levels (151.90 to 152.25-ish is next high volume level) Monday morning...no real news from Italy until Tuesday (ie hung/not hung gov't), probably some euro-moving banter on Monday could keep us on our toes....

[johnnywa]

Italian elections should be over basically Monday morning Central time say 9-11 with most returns in by then

[johnnywa]

Italian elections should be over basically Monday morning Central time say 9-11 with most returns in by then

Election ends 9:00E Monday

[nightlyhawk]

This very short-term setup worked again last Friday. I only used it for swing trading.

[Out of Bounds]

Daily Bollinger bandwith is low and indicating a break. BBW does not predict direction but is very reliable in predicting that a big move is close. My guess is down and soon. this would be good as i am very short and just bought a boat and I need to pay for it.

[Out of Bounds]

Purple lines are lines of resistance/support. Expect "sticky" behavior here.

[Out of Bounds]

Chinese PMI lower:
http://www.businessinsider.com/china-fe ... pmi-2013-2

From business insider:

(futures dropping)

[Royal Flush]

Update on weekly SKEW chart:

A correction warning issued on Friday suggesting good odds for a lower weekly SPX close in the next three weeks.
However, given how last week unfolded there are two interpretations.

One is that a correction started last week and isn't finished. There is more down to come, and we should see lows that at least hit SPX 1496.33.

The other is that the market is still setting up for the corrective move, and there is some more up ahead before the correction hits.
The reason for this interpretation is Friday's rally, not only in the SPX but also the SKEW.
While the Friday close did meet the technical criteria for the warning, it was actually a close call as SKEW was rising quite dramatically on the daily chart.
We want the warning to flash when SKEW starts trending down, and it may still be trending up.
We'll know next week if the SKEW keeps climbing.
The IMPORTANT TAKEAWAY, however, is that while a lot of timid bears were scurrying for their caves on Friday, the folks in the options market that drive SKEW were actually reloading for a downmove. They were sellers of the rally if you will. If Friday's rally continues into next week, I would expect SKEW to keep rising as the corrective moment gets closer.

The attachment SKEW 022413.jpg is no longer available

Thanks for the update Mr. BachNut.The last time the daily SKEW exceeded 130 was last fall during the distribution phase. It then fell and recouvered as it appears to have begun Friday. It topped at 128 and fell again but the SPY continued to rise forming a double top. The 3rd peak both the SPY & SKEW made a LH. I wonder if this pattern will repeat

[Out of Bounds]

I was looking for copper to fall if China disappointed. Oddly, it is slightly up. Perhaps the copper gang expected worse. IDK.

[Mr. BachNut]

Update on weekly SKEW chart:

A correction warning issued on Friday suggesting good odds for a lower weekly SPX close in the next three weeks.
However, given how last week unfolded there are two interpretations.

One is that a correction started last week and isn't finished. There is more down to come, and we should see lows that at least hit SPX 1496.33.

The other is that the market is still setting up for the corrective move, and there is some more up ahead before the correction hits.
The reason for this interpretation is Friday's rally, not only in the SPX but also the SKEW.
While the Friday close did meet the technical criteria for the warning, it was actually a close call as SKEW was rising quite dramatically on the daily chart.
We want the warning to flash when SKEW starts trending down, and it may still be trending up.
We'll know next week if the SKEW keeps climbing.
The IMPORTANT TAKEAWAY, however, is that while a lot of timid bears were scurrying for their caves on Friday, the folks in the options market that drive SKEW were actually reloading for a downmove. They were sellers of the rally if you will. If Friday's rally continues into next week, I would expect SKEW to keep rising as the corrective moment gets closer.

SKEW 022413.jpg

Thanks for the update Mr. BachNut.The last time the daily SKEW exceeded 130 was last fall during the distribution phase. It then fell and recouvered as it appears to have begun Friday. It topped at 128 and fell again but the SPY continued to rise forming a double top. The 3rd peak both the SPY & SKEW made a LH. I wonder if this pattern will repeat

sc.png

Me too.

[joegamma]

looks like yen rejected lower lows tonight,
es futures ,looking for divergence, possible bear flag from thursday lows?

this is 4hour bars...

es-4hr-224.png (9.79 KiB) Viewed 4460 times

[joegamma]

This very short-term setup worked again last Friday. I only used it for swing trading.

thats a great idea!! thanks for sharing

[joegamma]

hmmmm
yen only correllated with spy when spy heads south......weekly

and 2hr bars too....

[TraderGirl]

Entering distribution phase? Chart is from New Trading Systems http://stockcharts.com/public/3421479/tenpp

Nice chart Clark, thanks for the link...

[joegamma]

This very short-term setup worked again last Friday. I only used it for swing trading.

Thanks!
here is something I am looking at...using 2hr, momentum indicators (very short and fast) would have gotten long late dec....still fiddlin with the rule to avoid whipsaws and too much bro' ...
GL!

[nightlyhawk]

NYMO crossed above lower BB last Friday, but it was unconfirmed by black line (as seen in red circle). Normally, the black line would reverse its direction when spx gains of > 10-pt within a day, but last Friday was one of those very few exceptions. So, bulls should be cautious because black line tends to be quite reliable to show the real movement of spx.

[shaca]

USD/CAD is going to do what USD/JPY has done

shaca, your statement is a shock to me as I am sure it would be to any Canadian. Under what premise do you perceive the Bank of Canada is going to devalue our currency as Japan has done?

it's all about US dollar.
1,2% inflation in france y/y, and 0,6% in canada, +1,8% in the US
and looking at the chart, they are very very similar