03/01/2014 Weekend Update

[Al_Dente]

My thesis as to why the market has topped and why going forward will either be consolidation or a decline.

THANKS

[uempel]

Trying to figure out how to react on Monday morning. Note that this chart might be obsolete when the market opens - SPX up at 1870 or down at 1770

[gappy]

Morning all. Fear not uempel, the microcurrencies are just fighting for the best rate they can get before the macrocurrency reset that will render the great unserviceable bond debt to null and void.

wto.PNG

From the debt map: A is already on board (whew),

b.PNG

c.PNG

we now pressure b and c.

ukraine.PNG

syria.PNG

as their currency are no longer pegged to Uncle Petrobuck. So the play goes on, and it shouldn't be long before the fat lady sings.

a.PNG

Then we will be returned to our regular programing.

Capture.PNG

Good trades to all, vote the power Cobra.

[uempel]

Gappy: "...Morning all. Fear not uempel, the microcurrencies are just fighting for the best rate they can get before the macrocurrency reset that will render the great unserviceable bond debt to null and void."

Gappy - what are you trying to say? Pls try again...

[gappy]

Gappy: "...Morning all. Fear not uempel, the microcurrencies are just fighting for the best rate they can get before the macrocurrency reset that will render the great unserviceable bond debt to null and void."

Gappy - what are you trying to say? Pls try again...

Just that the value of currency is the trade arbitrage it commands. Commodity mining nations can command a higher price for their efforts if they can avoid the inflation that we export with our dollar carry trade. And it has suffered recently just so.

twd.PNG

To decouple or "depeg" from Uncle Buck will give producers a bigger bite of the profit pie when the Tradeweighted Dollar is replaced by a basket of currencies to be recreated by the BIS based on sovereign worths.

Capture.PNG

Suggest this for you, http://philosophyofmetrics.com/2014/02/ ... te-system/ Sorry must reply later, today is butcher day. glty.

[mylock]

Gappy really great read. Thanks for your thoughts and for the link. I absolutely love to read the thoughts and feelings of really intelligent people. They have always intrigued me with their thinking and vision (I guess its because those are two things that I lack, therefore I search for it in others....lol).

[Al_Dente]

Still working on ETF inflows/outflows to try and make better sense of it all.
Let’s try looking at at the worst day in Feb vs the best day in Feb:
Worst day: On 3 Feb the dow was down -326 points and the flow showed an SPX outflow of -$6.5billion dollars (including SPY and IVV; not including small or mid caps), while the inflow was into various bond ETFs totaling about $5.5billion dollars.
That’s a snapshot of a typical grizzly-bear day: “sell stocks and buy bonds.”

The best day of the month was 11 Feb when the dow was up +192p and the SPX inflow was $2.7billion dollars.
Okay then, the second best day was 6 Feb, dow +188p, but incredibly the inflow was only into bonds and into the SHORT-spy vehicles SH and SDS,
and there was a direct SPY outflow of $770million dollars. This on a +188p “Bull Trend” day !
Fine, let’s look at the third best market day in Feb which was 7 Feb, dow up +165p. On that day, the bulk of the inflow was again into bonds (about $700million) and there was NO inflow to SPY (meaning there was none that made it into the top ten). Rather there was a small outflow from SPY in the amount of $233million dollars. This on a +165p "Bull Trend" day !

Summary: the three best days in Feb, which together ran the dow up a total of 545 points (192 + 188 + 165 = 545), did not come close to making up for the damage done on the single bear day of 3 Feb, down -326p. Well, perhaps you'll say that the other up days in the month dribbled enough dollars into spy to make up the difference. Okay, I’ll listen but I don’t see it…

Below is a screenshot of the entire month of Feb (not including Friday, which won’t update until tomorrow). Recall that the dow was up +622 points for the month, while the FLOW tells a story of distribution. But like Cobra says, this shows where we’ve been, not where we’re going,
which reminds me it’s Sunday vote Cobra.

You can run the flows here, using any dates you want to plug in. Check 4 yrslf….
http://www.etf.com/etfanalytics/etf-fun ... FFlowsData

[tsf]

Ukraine mayhem update by Christian Fraser BBC @ForeignCorresp
https://twitter.com/ForeignCorresp

Six Russian ships have entered Uknraine port... Ukrainian navy chief switched side... Ukrainain soldiers took body armors of journalists...

[uempel]

Al_Dente, google

Financial Times Norway’s oil fund turns net seller of stocks

[Al_Dente]

Al_Dente, google
Financial Times Norway’s oil fund turns net seller of stocks

WOW, thanks ok here’s one 4 u boss:
While everyone is watching Russia and the Ukraine, China’s PMI just dropped……
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china- ... _news_stmp


OFF TOPIC:
Stockcharts subscribers saw a version of this in yesterday’s newsletter. (The chart and chat below is for the benefit of non-subscribers).
Fresh look at the four aggressive sectors. Underneath each one is the corresponding EQUAL WEIGHTED ETF:
Art Hill says this about that:
“…the broader market is in good shape because SPY and RSP recorded new highs, although SPY appears to be struggling to hold this high.
“… The technology sector ETFs both hit new highs and this sector is leading..… chartists should watch … support … closely.
“…finance is lagging because XLF remains below its January high and the RYF has yet to forge a new high. Both remain in upswings, but chartists should watch support from the late February lows for signs of … weakness.
“… the consumer discretionary sector was lagging at the beginning of the month, but surged in February and the Equal-Weight …RCD… hit a new high. This is positive.
“… the industrials sector is challenging its prior highs, but has yet to forge new highs.
“Overall... It is a bit of a mixed picture…”

[Long story short: everything looks very very good fine, nonetheless watch your supports carefully]
Here’s the open link for subscribers, but this will re-set to whatever setting YOU HAVE on YOUR OWN candleglance:
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/cand ... ,RGI,RCD|M

[pezhead9000]

BAML client sales - institutional selling
http://fat-pitch.blogspot.com/2014/02/w ... 8.html?m=1

[KeiZai]

...

[ALdaytrade]

I just wanted to make a very brief comment on the following:

"By the way: Russian behavior in regards to territorial integrity of the Ukraine is not very reassuring. Reminds Europeans of Hitler marching into Austria 1938 and into Bohemia and Moravia in 1939."

This situation might remind the Europeans of Hitler however it reminds the Ukrainians of 1930 to 1933 when 10 million Ukrainians were starved, killed and deported to Siberia by Russia in the deplorable famine-genocide carried out by Stalin's Communist regime.

The European did not step in at that time, because they were dependant on Russia for wheat and now they are dependant on Russia for Natural Gas. Is history repeating itself?

[ALdaytrade]

KeiZai,

Your account of Ukraine supporting Nazi Germany is so incorrect, it is an insult to history, not to mention all of those who lost their lives when the Nazis invaded Ukraine. The Nazi plan was for the extermination of 70% the Ukrainian people with the remainder to be slaves. Approximately 4 million Ukrainian people were killed including 1 million of the Ukrainian Jewish community. I will bow out of this discussion of your post because it is so incorrect, I can not imagine someone making statements like this.

[KeiZai]

KeiZai,

Your account of Ukraine supporting Nazi Germany is so incorrect, it is an insult to history, not to mention all of those who lost their lives when the Nazis invaded Ukraine. The Nazi plan was for the extermination of 70% the Ukrainian people with the remainder to be slaves. Approximately 4 million Ukrainian people were killed including 1 million of the Ukrainian Jewish community. I will bow out of this discussion of your post because it is so incorrect, I can not imagine someone making statements like this.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepan_Bandera

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepan_Ban ... zi_Germany

[uempel]

ES March now in the 1840 - 1842 area ...

[Al_Dente]

dow futures down about -140 points at the moment

[uempel]

KeiZai

There are nation states and there are states: Germany, France or Sweden are nation states - but Switzerland, the UK (and Russia too) are definitely states incorporating several nationalities. I don't know very much about Ukraine history, but when a state consists of people with different nationalities - this does not give any foreign power any right to annex some part of it...

I mean this kind of argumentation was part of the Nazi rational and pretense which led to the Second World War: a referendum Heim ins Reich (return to the nation) and stuff like that with a propaganda machine in full blast? Come on...

I don't know if you can read German, but Hagen Schulze wrote a book on this subject: Staat und Nation in der Europäischen Geschichte - it fits the topic perfectly.

Interesting too that Russia is on a nationalistic tour de force in its West and seems to forget that Russia itself is not "one nation". There are bits and pieces in the south and east which might want to break away ...

As to that Ukranian Nazi-friend: in every country which is invaded there is always a Quisling. In the UK it would have been Oswald Mosley, in the US it is rumored that old Joe F. Kennedy might have been a Nazi pro-consul. Both Mosley and Kennedy would have definitely had a large part of the population on their side: in 1939/1940 most people were sick of the First World War and were happy to appease the Nazis in order to avoid bloodshed. In 1939 my (English) relatives considered Churchill a warmonger

[BullBear52x]

This type of gap down will take out lots of stops below 1840 cash SPX.

[uempel]

dow futures down about -140 points at the moment

3_3dow future_png.png

If SPX closes below 1840 tomorrow some kind of short term top is in