04/16/2015 Live Update

[Daniel]

this bull is not giving up

Indeed, why should this bull move give up at this moment? Small and midcaps are leading in RS the past few days, this is more bullish than not. Both IWM and MDY had a pierce of their upper trading bands yesterday, on hourly charts.

[cletus]

JNUG broke out yesterday but my profit stops are tight. The reason is that it is so bunched up against the MA it could easily fail here and drop lower again. Early morning test must succeed or I'm out.

[cletus]

Out of JNUG. It simply did not survive the MA tests and breakout tests. I'll look at it later next week.

[mozart]

very tight

[Cobra]

double bottom or not, wait and see.

[fehro]

SPX still in-between hourly trying to doji.. but 20m to go

[Junior Buffett]

double bottom or not, wait and see.

you bet!

[fehro]

INDEX days GOLD/GLD test 20d/50d convergence … TLT weak.. looks like 50d next..

[mozart]

Raging Bull

[Cobra]

double bottom text book target

[fehro]

SPX.. mind yesterday's and this morning's tiny gap

trying to fill the morning first.. hourly candle pushing.. but 5m to go

[DellGriffith]

this bull is not giving up

Indeed, why should this bull move give up at this moment?

Because SPY tagged its upper bb a couple days ago. That often leads to the bull move slowing down or even ending. That's why I sold my longs when I did. Yes, it could keep going, but its a good spot to prune longs. QE has ended, there is nothing to replace that stimulus with, and SPY has been in a box for months, so I didn't even leave a runner this time. I got completely out.

Market behavior has clearly shifted more towards bears with the end of QE.

[brucekeller]

About that JNUG etc...
pretty bad divergence.

[fehro]

/GC higher high, higher low.. testing 20d/50d .. shake-out? close above 1211ish 20w by Friday pm = bullish

[Trades with cats]

CLO (Collateralized Loan Obligations) issuance very high because of Dodd Frank deadline. Apparently if your company is sub-prime (junk bond or less) and you need money to buy back stock the big banks make you a loan and then package it just like sub-prime mortgages with traunches and the hole 9 yards. New deadline coming up means that they would have to retain 5% of all issued obligations themselves. SEC is not backing down, yet. Lines up nicely with GE exit from credit. Could be this May is the last of the great buyback seasons. Anyway this fits in with what Dell said, as buybacks have been the other half of the rocket fuel.

[fehro]

/GC higher high, higher low.. testing 20d/50d .. shake-out? close above 1211ish 20w by Friday pm = bullish

all depends on the USD

[fehro]

SPX.. sooo close.. it's a tad strange…. how quiet it is..creeping up to these levels.. no sharp moves..

[mozart]

8 hr chart

[fehro]

a tad curious… no gap fill.. yet.. seems a possible explosive up move may happen… if it wants to fill it.. otherwise.. that's it for today?

[JFR]

IBD excerpt.