11/27/2018 Live Update

[BullBear52x]

Chart for the road: I don't think it will repeat, but I would not feel so good on buy side now, unless last buy the dip intraday holds. Peace!

[Trades with cats]

With credit and crude both falling hard makes it difficult to be a bull. Specially with that upper 2670's being tested a half dozen or so times in the last 48 hours.

[Al_Dente]

[save for later]
All about ETFs. It’s a challenging read, because it’s all about SHORTS, where you always have to flip your brain upside down.
lendable assets = ETFs available to lend to short sellers
borrow = borrowing ETFs to sell short

SPY has has over $50bn in “short balances”
HYG and JNK are shorty favorites
etc

https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis ... 9a841157a9

[Al_Dente]

SPY is a dick
Really trying to break out, and sustain it, but today there is no power behind the throne… at least not yet….
5m

[Al_Dente]

Sentiment:
Options traders (VIX) are loaded for bull-spy, and have been for the past couple/few days

[Trades with cats]

Alistair on twitter says SPY has 36 new highs and and 404 new lows. Yea something about narrow leadership being not good.

[Trades with cats]

So shorting a long bond etf is a sweet idea if you get your timing right. If you see the credit market blowing up then you get the added kicker of the etf imploding faster than the market. Because they are invested in stuff that trades a couple of transactions a week so there is no way they could shrink fast enough if Ma and Pa Kettle decide to bail. Remember there is no such thing as a market maker for these etf's so the banks that sponsor will not be risking millions in a rout. Just about guaranteed the Fed and the SEC will step in and gate the exit for the good of the country.

If your timing is off it is going to cost you the interest payments while you are short, because the person's shares you borrowed have to get interest paid just like the person you sold the borrowed shares to, and that etf is only paying interest once. And if you are with a traditional broker (unlike Interactive) they are going to charge you interest as well. May be cheaper to play the future's market.

[Rezito]

Gap fill at SPX 2681...let's see some direction now.
Credit spread not helping the long case.

[Trades with cats]

I should add that a talking head article a week or two ago noted that over 80% of the appropriate bond etf shares available for shorting had all ready been taken by short sellers. Yet another reason to look at futures and options.

[Al_Dente]

HAPPY HOUR

[Trades with cats]

All this gap talk made me look at a 30 minute regular hours chart. This thing is still in the ditch. Going to need a lot of Reindeer to get it pulled back on the road. Really looking like the odds of a 2018 low re-test and starting to stack up. Super Jay and then the Orange Swan and Twitter in Chief, boys it is in your hands.

[QED]

.
Dozens of Iowa farmers get less than $25 from Trump tariff assistance, data show

Nearly $31 million in bailout payments are hitting the mailboxes of Iowa farmers slammed financially from ongoing U.S. trade disputes, detailed data from a national environmental group show.
But some checks will barely cover the cost of a Starbucks coffee for a few growers.

About 100 of the nearly 4,300 payments to Iowa farmers through October are less than $25, according to data from the Environmental Working Group.
Twenty-four Iowa farmers snagged less than $10, with 11 getting $5 or less.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/20 ... 125027002/
.

[Cobra]

members only update at 3:50 pm
http://www.cobrasmarketview.com/2018/11 ... ay-update/

[Cobra]

well, guess that's it for today. Wednesday tomorrow has been mixed. thank you guys, I'll see you in another thread soon.

before the close, please take a little time to vote for me, thanks. https://stockcharts.com/public/1684859/tenpp

[QED]

Today, the /ES stayed within the overnight range.

[Daniel]

Today, the /ES stayed within the overnight range.

That range was unusually wide. With a big spike up around 2am EST. Some european news perhaps.

That scraggly "bullish melt up" which we saw today, w SPY closing near its hod, is actually typical of "seasonal holiday trading" this time of year. Bond yield stability may also be a hint that we are returning (for now) to a higher level of market 'normalcy'. The danger to bears of stocks putting in a bottom--especially a W-shape bottom--in a bullish seasonal period when nobody is paying much heed to seasonality--is quite real.

The markets seem focused on macro events right now. So this possible restoration of 'normalcy' may not preclude a sudden snapback to higher levels of volatility, in response to news and announcements.