06/30/2012 Weekend Update

Post by **Cobra** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 10:04 am

Guess this one day old institutional accumulation distribution chart doesn't matter anymore (courtesy of stocktiming), actually the whole institutional chart idea doesn't help too because it only reflect what is happening now, not the future.

Post by **Cobra** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 10:12 am

Smart money still short heavily, we can only know if they've changed the position the next week because of the Friday's super up day. For now the chart still is bearish.

Post by **Cobra** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 10:17 am

II and AAII. Retailers are bearish.

Richarab · Post by **Richarab** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 10:30 am

Cobra wrote:Smart money still short heavily, we can only know if they've changed the position the next week because of the Friday's super up day. For now the chart still is bearish.

Thanks as always cobra for your work
Tough trading week last week - very temperamental market - and our board kind of reflected that

I felt you (un)moderated well enough and like parent sort of let the kids figure it out for themselves - which I feel we did

Rough seas ahead in the market
But the family is only getting stronger IMHO (in my hummus, onions)

GLTA (which is gay and lesbian tennis association, which I proudly support)

---
I am here: http://tapatalk.com/map.php?zwd0yx

KENA · Post by **KENA** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 10:40 am

Cobra wrote:Guess this one day old institutional accumulation distribution chart doesn't matter anymore (courtesy of stocktiming), actually the whole institutional chart idea doesn't help too because it only reflect what is happening now, not the future.

Yes..I agree although not to much can predict the the future.Charts that show what happened yesterday do in some part show a trend of the past that could continue into the near future days.Most everything we see and do are mostly based on past happenings.imho.

Post by **Cobra** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 10:43 am

Thanks.

Richarab wrote:
Cobra wrote:Smart money still short heavily, we can only know if they've changed the position the next week because of the Friday's super up day. For now the chart still is bearish.

Thanks as always cobra for your work
Tough trading week last week - very temperamental market - and our board kind of reflected that

I felt you (un)moderated well enough and like parent sort of let the kids figure it out for themselves - which I feel we did

Rough seas ahead in the market
But the family is only getting stronger IMHO (in my hummus, onions)

GLTA (which is gay and lesbian tennis association, which I proudly support)

---
I am here: http://tapatalk.com/map.php?zwd0yx

KENA · Post by **KENA** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 10:51 am

There sure are a lot of articles about Europe.I have read some and most say they have just kicked the can dn the road for a few days or few weeks at the most and it will just get worse and they will end up more in debt.I do belive that but we will just have to wait and see.

KENA · Post by **KENA** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 11:09 am

Here is last Mon.Mkt strength chart showing changes in Mkt strength over the past 2+ years.You can see for the past couple of months it has been tending dn and now is slowly turning up.Also note in the past they do not always go stright up.We will get an up date on this chart on Mon the 2nd. (Chart by Stocktiming)

Post by **Cobra** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 11:20 am

KENA wrote:There sure are a lot of articles about Europe.I have read some and most say they have just kicked the can dn the road for a few days or few weeks at the most and it will just get worse and they will end up more in debt.I do belive that but we will just have to wait and see.

Policy makers don't care at all about the future, as long as the problem appears solved in the next couple of months or weeks, they're happy.

In the end, printing money is the only solution. All those countries simply keep borrowing and borrowing and borrowing as the best solution is to make the problem worse and worse and eventually, impossible to return the money, then the problem is solved automatically.

KENA · Post by **KENA** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 11:21 am

Hi Cobra..I forget to say thanks a lot of times etc.I know this is a lot of work and does take much time to do a good job as you do and this is much appreciated.While we will have our 4 th july you and your family have a great Canada Days.See you next week.

Post by **Cobra** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 11:22 am

KENA wrote:Hi Cobra..I forget to say thanks a lot of times etc.I know this is a lot of work and does take much time to do a good job as you do and this is much appreciated.While we will have our 4 th july you and your family have a great Canada Days.See you next week.

Thanks. Happy Independence Day!

Harapa · Post by **Harapa** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 12:04 pm

Here is some information on WLI/WLIG based model that I mentioned yesterday (click on the links in the document to learn more about the model).

Improving_on_Buy_and_Hold-When_is_the_Best_Time_to_Sell.pdf: (362.25 KiB) Downloaded 326 times

This model is in sell mode since Jun 1st. Historically, an interim low occurred 20-30 trading days after a basic sell signal, followed by an up move that peaked around day 65, and then came the plunge

.
Please note charts below are copy/reproduction of the original work reported by G. Vrba.
Average Perfromace after Sell Basic

Individualized Performance of all signals since 1968

And this is what happened after day 65. Odd are heavily stacked against any substantial gains.

This time, trading day 20-30 corresponds to June 29-Jul 13.
Caveat: Last year markets started to fall after day 50 (making it the first failure of the system). This also led to revision of the model (by the author) to initiate sell after 7 days of initial signal. Also to note that signals from this models are for long term investment. However, these can be helpful in ST trading.

Combing short term signals generated by VIX (that I have posted in the day trader forum here) or currency SWAP with signals from this model show an interesting pattern. Long trades initiated by the ST setups (VIX or CS) perform substantially better when WLIg based model is in “Buy” mode and short trades do exceptionally well when the model is in “Sell” mode. Table below lists cumulative returns under various combinations.

: Performance.png (6.12 KiB) Viewed 5815 times

*CS = Currency Swap, based on EURUSD or AUDUSD pairs.
VIX, CS signals derived from hourly data, WLIg signals on daily basis. ST signals last from few hours to few days. Although these setups are for ST trading, the time horizon does get extended in protracted up or down moves (to your benefit).
Periods Analyzed: VIX-May 2007-Present,# of L+S trades=114, B&H Return: -10% (as of close of 6/28/12)
CS - Jan 2009-Present, # of L+S trades=116, B&H Return: 41% (as of close of 6/28/12)

If your find this model interesting and would like to know more about this I will be glad to answer any questions you may have.

Harapa · Post by **Harapa** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 4:41 pm

Even Cobra's non stop model is sensitive to the status of WLIg trading model.

: NS and WLIG.png (4.54 KiB) Viewed 5561 times

*NS = Cobra’s nonstop model. Return is sum of trades as listed on the web site. Last trade included in the analysis is long closed on 5/6/2011.
Edit: Additional Data:
Taking both short and long trades results in a cumulative return of 115% but only taking trades inline with WLIg system produces a cumulative return of 202% for the period analyzed.

Comment: This seem to be the case with another long term momentum based model I follow (back testing to 1966).
Return of all long trades since 1966: 26X
Return of all long trades when WLIg is in buy mode: 38X

Since May 2000
Return of all long trades: 67%
Return of all trades when WLIg is in buy mode: 105%
B&H: -1.4%
All returns are for SPX without dividend

KeiZai · Post by **KeiZai** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 6:44 pm

ABC trade idea

Earnings Date: 26-Jul-12

KeiZai · Post by **KeiZai** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 7:05 pm

very strong support level for dollar, pullback to at least test that support is very likely (my strong belief is

will hold)

Hello P-bar

Spent hours with dollar triangle wave puzzle and regardless I am unable to resolve if we are in wave 4 or 3

* Thoughts on dollar are very welcome *

KeiZai · Post by **KeiZai** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 8:12 pm

And what I have figured out? Go and figure it out for yourself

silicon_beaver · Post by **silicon_beaver** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 10:00 pm

Cobra wrote:Smart money still short heavily, we can only know if they've changed the position the next week because of the Friday's super up day. For now the chart still is bearish.

banzhang,

Last Friday's vol not very high.
NYSE Volume 4,601,300,500.00
Nasdaq Volume 1,963,165,125.00
total: 6.6 B.

In contrast:
06/22 (Friday one week ago)
NYSE Volume 5,322,476,000.00
Nasdaq Volume... 3,465,574,750.00
total: 8.8 B.

xfradnex · Post by **xfradnex** » Sat Jun 30, 2012 10:12 pm

silicon_beaver wrote:
Cobra wrote:Smart money still short heavily, we can only know if they've changed the position the next week because of the Friday's super up day. For now the chart still is bearish.

banzhang,

Last Friday's vol not very high.
NYSE Volume 4,601,300,500.00
Nasdaq Volume 1,963,165,125.00
total: 6.6 B.

In contrast:
06/22 (Friday one week ago)
NYSE Volume 5,322,476,000.00
Nasdaq Volume... 3,465,574,750.00
total: 8.8 B.

Perfect day to do some evil HFT stuff.

ZimZeb · Post by **ZimZeb** » Sun Jul 01, 2012 1:05 am

KeiZai wrote:And what I have figured out? Go and figure it out for yourself

Love the personality in all your charts this weekend KeiZai!

...equally as much as R.a.'s Kuwaiti comedy routines ;P

Post by **Cobra** » Sun Jul 01, 2012 11:34 am

Sorry, database crashed, should be fixed now.

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