Cobra's Market View

jademann wrote:I got my VIX 20 SPXU buy. GL all!

VIX 20 was my signal to exit long stocks, but VIX is completely out of synch with stocks in the last couple of days. Not to mention CPC. What's going on?

Happy New Year everyone!

Does anyone know what is up with $CPC and especially $CPCE? is it broken or is now one of the best long trades of the decade?

I have been using $CPC, $CPCE, etc for trading decisions but it failed me miserably in the last couple of weeks. is it broken now?
THANKS!

Wondering if anyone was able to catch the wave these last two days? I was long UPRO but after all the selling I sold first chance I got. I didnt see anything to think this was coming.. i was. long TQQQ and GDXU since Monday and Tuesday a week ago, see my previous posts. GDXU worked much better, esp...

we'll see how this rebound goes. in retrospect, while SPX made a lower low on friday, TLT made a higher low and $USD made a lower high. that was a clue.

my bet on decreasing USD on tuesday was correct. yet the long stocks failed. fortunately long gold miners of-sett the loss. now some say equities should move too. we'll see. the doom and gloom feels as thick as in 2008. agree, no panic yet. https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/butbutbut we'll se...

i don't understand the volume conundrum either, but the ETFs i swing trade, SQQQ and TQQQ, do show a peak in volume comparable to june lows.

JFR wrote:ES 5 minutes. A good push up out of the base. Those bulls. Never give up.

i don't think its bulls, its dollar going down.

SPX McClellan Osc. was -165.24 and spy was 273.45 back in early 3/2020. It took 3 more weeks as SPX McClellan. Osc going UP and down till SPY still to lower and lower to 210.35 by late March 2020. As of yesterday SPX Mc OSC. was -152.31. This is unreal. i don't think its fair to compare now to 3/20...

troubling news from europe: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-09-27/

dollar went up suddenly at noon. but bonds were selling off before that, so maybe unrelated.

Untitled.png US dollar going up parabolic now, no wonder stocks and gold and everything else suppressed in dollar values. i just noticed that for the most of this year, dollar is above monthly BB. feels unprecedented, but i don't have charts going back to 1980's. my bold prediction is dollar rise i...

Daniel wrote:LQD at 103 is at a 4-year low. (Except for two weeks in March 2020.)

All capital gains in inv.grade corporate bonds over the last four years are gone.

I believe it was slightly higher in march 2020. looks the previous lower was the flash crash of may 2010. anyone remembers that, LOL?

US dollar going up parabolic now, no wonder stocks and gold and everything else suppressed in dollar values. i just noticed that for the most of this year, dollar is above monthly BB. feels unprecedented, but i don't have charts going back to 1980's. my bold prediction is dollar rise is near and i'm...

jademann wrote:I am buying more UPRO for a medium term bounce. The GBP was down big today. Any news about that?

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/23/economy/ ... index.html

feels like short covering started for the day.

BTW, SPY:UDN did not make a fresh low compared to june.

Covered my shorts a day too early and left a lot of money on the table, LOL. it really feels like short term bottom should be near. $BPSPX at 13 and $VIX hit the upper weekly BB. Dollar is on the tear. looks parabolic now in some time frames. of course i could be wrong and evil putin will use nukes ...

interesting reaction. i thought 0.75 was baked in?
FD: I was short, so no complains.

edit, i guess the $CPC and $CPCE levels in the last couple of days were the clues people expected the markets going up.

I'm thinking sell the news came one day later this time?

Cletus said "more up". Cletus said the CPI report was destined to be extremely bullish eventually due to crashing commodity prices. Some life lessons: 1) Don't bet against Cletus 2) If you said the CPI report was a reason to be bearish, you have failed as a trader 3) If you said the CPI r...

the above line is not holding for NASDAQ, Russell 2000, and emerging markets. i'm thinking they are leading?