Cobra's Market View

Since this has been formally published, I will re-post it here just so traders step away from trying to call a few points move and think about the big picture a little bit more. The last 13 years, the following has occurred: -- Tech bubble burst -- 9/11 attacks -- Iraq War -- Housing bubble burst --...

TOP or BOTTOM? (sentiment at 2003 bear market LOW levels)

The Dow just made a new all time high.

I'm panicked in my SPY call leaps which are up nicely as the buy the dip strategy works perpetually so far in 2013 (no trading losses). But, what to do?

WAS THAT THE TOP?????

I noticed the last two posts by Cobra for members had the title "buying climax" and "CPCE top signal". Are people still calling tops? I guess traders ignored these readings which came in at the exact same level as the day the market touched 666 and bottomed in March, 2009. Ignore...

II and AAII. I still think II is not extreme enough. Still II is very high. Surveys are not accurate measures of sentiment. People can say they are bullish but be positioned otherwise in their own portfolios. This is an important distinction and why I only use the ISE call/put buying levels to ACCU...

Gold: This is what happens when one side of the trade gets too crowded. Gold should at least double in the next decade, by extrapolation. It's a 50 year trend, I doubt it ended in the last few years. Just like the 100 year trend in the Dow.

5 day avg of the Total ISEE put/call ratio hits the lowest reading ever. Not the least bit afraid about buying SPY calls for the long term yesterday.

Cyclicals like Freeport McMoran are up sharply today, gold is up. The cyclical bull may be returning to a theater near you!

We are buyers of gold TODAY. Gold is the strongest performing asset in the last 50 years and the public has abandoned it here.

The 5 day avg of the Equity put/call ratio has fallen further today as retail gives up on stocks to tie the lowest level ever seen in a bull market. Let me repeat that: THE LOWEST LEVEL EVER SEEN IN A BULL MARKET. The 5 day average is the same as the week the market bottomed in March 2009. In the tr...

IYR already makes new 52 week highs even as traders, professional AND retail, call tops

Was a big buyer of SPY calls on this dip this morning, still actively fading retail who has no idea what kind of major bull wave we're in right now, not even close to finished

Short term equity put/call sentiment approaches the most extreme levels in the past decade.

ARE YOU SURE YOU WANT TO CALL A TOP HERE?

All I see is a major channel on ES, with ES at all time highs. Looks like the bottom of a channel to me, not a top, maybe a little more shaking out

must be a top, the price just keeps going higher

Really cool documentary on 1929 (lots of parallels to today) http://video.pbs.org/video/1308436568?starttime=61000 Were there "Occupy Wall Street" protests in 1929? Seems like we're living in the exact OPPOSITE era of 1929 to me. I've never seen so much hatred of Wall Street and stocks in...

new all time highs in SPX. maybe that was the top...let's wait for the next 5 pt drop in the dow to confirm

maybe that was the top....the dow dropped 3 pts

The following effects have caused the S&P to never be down once during the period of March options expiration to April 4th every year since 2009: 1. End of quarter window dressing and lack of selling 2. Good friday holiday 3. Beginning of the month April inflows 4. Tax refunds put to work in the...